@article{greig2002egg,
  title={{The End of Geography?: Globalization, Communications, and Culture in the International System}},
  author={Greig, J.M.},
  journal={Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  volume={46},
  number={2},
  pages={225},
  year={2002},
  publisher={Peace Science Soc}
}

@BOOK{dunn72,
  AUTHOR =       {Dunn, John},
  TITLE =        {Modern Revolutions},
  PUBLISHER =    {Cambridge University Press},
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}

@ARTICLE{garrison08,
  AUTHOR =       {Garrison, Steve},
  TITLE =        {The Road to Civil War: An Interactive Theory of Internal Political Violence},
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  YEAR =         {2008},
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  number =       {2},
  pages =        {127-152},
  month =        {April},
  }

@ARTICLE{farley2008,
  AUTHOR =       {Farley, Maggie},
  TITLE =        {U.N. puts Darfur Death Toll at 300,000},
  JOURNAL =      {Los Angeles Times},
  YEAR =         {2008},
  volume =       {April 23},
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@MISC{cahoon2008,
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  title =        {World Statesmen},
  howpublished = {Internet},
  year =         {2008},
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}


@BOOK{lewisbeck1990,
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  }

@BOOK{gill2001,
  AUTHOR =       {Gill, Jeff},
  TITLE =        {Generalized Linear Models: A Unified Approach},
  PUBLISHER =    {Sage Publications},
  YEAR =         {2001},
  address =     {Thousand Oaks, California}
  Series =       {7-134},

}
@ARTICLE{nelderandwedderburn1972,
  AUTHOR =       {Nelder, John and Wedderburn, Robert},
  TITLE =        {Generalized Linear Models},
  JOURNAL =      {Journal of Royal Statistical Society},
  YEAR =         {1972},
  volume =       {Series  A},
  number =       {135},
  pages =        {370-385},
}
@BOOK{skocpol1979,
  AUTHOR =       {Skocpol, Theda},
  TITLE =        {States and Social Revolution: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China},
  PUBLISHER =    {Cambridge University Press},
  YEAR =         {1979},
  address =      {Cambridge, UK},
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{dowtyloescher1996,
  AUTHOR =       {Dowty, Alan and Gil Loescher},
  TITLE =        {Refugee Flows as Grounds for International Action },
  JOURNAL =      {International Security},
  YEAR =         {1996},
  volume =       {21},
  number =       {1},
  pages =        {43-71},
}
@ARTICLE{yoon1997,
  AUTHOR =       {Yoon, Mi},
  TITLE =        {Explaining U.S. Intervention in Third World Internal Wars, 1945-1989},
  JOURNAL =      {The Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  YEAR =         {1997},
  volume =       {41},
  number =       {4},
  pages =        {580-602},
}

@BOOK{vertzberger1998,
  AUTHOR =       {Vertzberger, Yaacov},
  TITLE =        {Risk Taking and Decisionmaking: Foreign Military Intervention Decisions},
  PUBLISHER =    {Stanford University Press},
  YEAR =         {1998},
  address =      {Stanford, CA},
  }

@BOOK{record2002,
  AUTHOR =       {Record, Jeffery},
  TITLE =        {Making War, Thinking History: Munich, Vietnam, and Presidential Uses of Force from Korea to Kosovo},
  PUBLISHER =    {Naval Institute Press},
  YEAR =         {2002},
  address =      {Annapolis, MD},
  }

@ARTICLE{pickering2002,
  AUTHOR =       {Pickering, Jeffery},
  TITLE =        {War-Weariness and Cumulative Effects: Victors, Vanquished, and Subsequent Interstate Intervention},
  JOURNAL =      {Journal of Peace Research},
  YEAR =         {2002},
  volume =       {39},
  number =       {3},
  pages =        {313-337},
 }

@ARTICLE{pickering2001,
  AUTHOR =       {Pickering, Jeffery},
  TITLE =        {The Conflict-prone and the Conflict-weary: War Outcomes and Types of Military Intervention},
  JOURNAL =      {Journal of Political and Military Sociology},
  YEAR =         {2001},
  volume =       {29},
  number =       {2},
  pages =        {221-239},
}

@ARTICLE{ostromjob1986,
  AUTHOR =       {Ostrom, Charles and Brian Job},
  TITLE =        {The President and the Political Use of Force},
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  number =       {2},
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  }


@ARTICLE{nevin1996,
  AUTHOR =       {Nevin, John},
  TITLE =        {War, Initiation and Selection by Consequences },
  JOURNAL =      {Journal of Peace Research},
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  volume =       {33},
  number =       {1},
  pages =        {99-108},

}

@ARTICLE{mullenbachmatthews2008,
  AUTHOR =       {Mullenbach, Mark and Gerard Matthews},
  TITLE =        {Deciding to Intervene: An Analysis of International and Domestic Influences on United States Interventions in Intrastate Disputes},
  JOURNAL =      {International Interactions},
  YEAR =         {2008},
  volume =       {34},
  number =       {1},
  pages =        {25-52},

}

@ARTICLE{mooreshellman2007,
  AUTHOR =       {Moore, Will H. and Stephen Shellman},
  TITLE =        {Whither Will They Go? A Global Study of Refugees -Destinations, 1965-1995},
  JOURNAL =      {International Studies Quarterly },
  YEAR =         {2007},
  volume =       {51},
  number =       {4},
  pages =        {811-834},

}


@ARTICLE{meernik2001,
  AUTHOR =       {Meernik, James},
  TITLE =        {Domestic Politics and the Political Use of Miltiary Force by the United States},
  JOURNAL =      {Political Research Quarterly},
  YEAR =         {2001},
  volume =       {54},
  number =       {4},
  pages =        {889-904},
  }

@BOOK{mason2004,
  AUTHOR =       {Mason, T. David},
  TITLE =        {Caught in the Crossfire: Revolution, Repression, and the Rational Peasant},
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  YEAR =         {2004},
  address =      {Boulder, CO},
}

@BOOK{khong1992,
  AUTHOR =       {Khong, Yuen},
  TITLE =        {Analogies at War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu, and the Vietnam Decision of 1965},
  PUBLISHER =    {Princeton University Press},
  YEAR =         {1992},
  address =      {Princeton, NJ},
  }


@INBOOK{khong1991,
  AUTHOR =       {Khong, Yuen},
  editor =       {Breslauer, GW and PE Tetlock},
  TITLE =        {Learning in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy},
  CHAPTER =      {The Lessons of Korea and the Vietnam Decisions of 1965},
  pages =        {302-349},
  PUBLISHER =    {Westview Press},
  YEAR =         {1991},
  address =      {Boulder, CO},
  }

@ARTICLE{jentlesonbritton1998,
  AUTHOR =       {Jentleson, Bruce and Rebecca Britton},
  TITLE =        {Still Pretty Prudent: Post-Cold War American Public Opinion on the Use of Military Force},
  JOURNAL =      {The Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  YEAR =         {1998},
  volume =       {42},
  number =       {4},
  pages =        {395-417},
  }

@ARTICLE{howellpevehouse2005,
  AUTHOR =       {Howell, William and Jon Pevehouse },
  TITLE =        {Presidents, Congress, and the Use of Force},
  JOURNAL =      {International Organization},
  YEAR =         {2005},
  volume =       {59},
  number =       {1},
  pages =        {209-232},
  }

@BOOK{mesquitasiversonmorrow2003,
  AUTHOR =       {Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Smith Siverson and James Morrow},
  TITLE =        {The Logic of Political Survival},
  PUBLISHER =    {MIT Press},
  YEAR =         {2003},
  address =      {Cambridge, MA},

}
@ARTICLE{huth1998,
  AUTHOR =       {Huth, Paul K.},
  TITLE =        {Major Power Intervention in International Crises, 1918-1988},
  JOURNAL =      {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  YEAR =         {1998},
  volume =       {42},
  number =       {6},
  pages =        {744-770},
}

@ARTICLE{masonfettweingarten1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Mason, T. David and Patrick J. Fett and Joseph P. {Weingarten Jr.}",
  TITLE =        "Win, Lose, or Draw: Predicting the Outcome of Civil Wars",
  JOURNAL =      "Political Research Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  volume =       "52",
  issue =        "2",
  pages =        "239-68",
}
@ARTICLE{fortna2004,
  AUTHOR =       {Fortna, Virginia Page},
  TITLE =        {Does Peacekeeping Keep Peace? International Intervention and the Duration of Peace After Civil War},
  JOURNAL =      {International Studies Quarterly},
  YEAR =         {2004},
  volume =       {48},
  number =       {},
  pages =        {269292},
  month =        {},
}
@ARTICLE{hartzellhoddie2003,
  AUTHOR =       {Hartzell, Caroline and Matthew Hoddie},
  TITLE =        {Institutionalizing Peace: Power Sharing and Post-Civil War Management},
  JOURNAL =      {American Journal of Political Science},
  YEAR =         {2003},
  volume =       {47},
  number =       {2},
  pages =        {318--332},
  month =        {April},
}
@ARTICLE{hartzell1999,
  AUTHOR =       {Hartzell, Caroline A.},
  TITLE =        {Explaining the Stability of Negotiated Settlements to Intrastate Wars},
  JOURNAL =      {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  YEAR =         {1999},
  volume =       {43},
  number =       {1},
  pages =        {3--22},
  month =        {February},
}
@ARTICLE{walter1999,
  AUTHOR =       {Walter, Barbara F.},
  TITLE =        {Designing Transitions from Civil War: Demobilization, Democratization, and Commitments to Peace},
  JOURNAL =      {International Organization},
  YEAR =         {1999},
  volume =       {24},
  number =       {1},
  pages =        {127-155},
  month =        {Summer},
}
@ARTICLE{derouensobek2004,
  AUTHOR =       {{DeRouen Jr.}, Karl and David Sobek},
  TITLE =        {The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome},
  JOURNAL =      {Journal of Peace Research},
  YEAR =         {2004},
  volume =       {41},
  number =       {3},
  pages =        {303--320},
  month =        {},
}
@ARTICLE{reganaydin2006,
  AUTHOR =       {Regan, Patrick and Asegul Aydin},
  TITLE =        {Diplomacy and Other Forms of Intervention Into Civil Wars},
  JOURNAL =      {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  YEAR =         {2006},
  volume =       {50},
  number =       {5},
  pages =        {736--756},
  month =        {October},
}
@ARTICLE{cunningham2006,
  AUTHOR =       {Cunningham, David E.},
  TITLE =        {Veto Players and Civil War Duration},
  JOURNAL =      {American Journal of Political Science},
  YEAR =         {2006},
  volume =       {50},
  number =       {4},
  pages =        {875-892},
  month =        {October},
}
@ARTICLE{mullenbach2005,
  AUTHOR =       {Mullenbach, Mark J.},
  TITLE =        {Deciding to Keep the Peace: An Analysis of International Influences on the Establishment of Third-Party Peacekeeping Missions},
  JOURNAL =      {International Studies Quarterly},
  YEAR =         {2005},
  volume =       {49},
  number =       {},
  pages =        {529-555},
  month =        {},
}
@ARTICLE{akcinarogluradziszewski2005,
  AUTHOR =       {Akcinaroglu, Seden and Elizabeth Radziszewski},
  TITLE =        {Expectations, Rivalry and Civil War Duration},
  JOURNAL =      {International Interactions},
  YEAR =         {2005},
  volume =       {31},
  number =       {},
  pages =        {349-374},
  month =        {},
}
@ARTICLE{greigdiehl2005,
  AUTHOR =       {Greig, J. Michael and Paul F. Diehl},
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  YEAR =         {2005},
  volume =       {49},
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  pages =        {621645},
  month =        {},
}
@ARTICLE{gilliganstedman2003,
  AUTHOR =       {Gilligan, Michael and Stephen John Stedman},
  TITLE =        {Where Do Peacekeepere Go?},
  JOURNAL =      {International Studies Review},
  YEAR =         {2003},
  volume =       {5},
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}
@ARTICLE{davismoore1997,
  AUTHOR =       {Davis, David R. and Will H. Moore},
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@ARTICLE{carmentrowlands1998,
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  TITLE =        {Threes Company: Evaluating Third-Party Intevention in Intrastate Conflict},
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  YEAR =         {1998},
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  number =       {5},
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@ARTICLE{salehyangleditsch2006,
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  TITLE =        {Refugees and the Spread of Civil War},
  JOURNAL =      {International Organization},
  YEAR =         {2006},
  volume =       {60},
  number =       {},
  pages =        {335-366},
  month =        {Spring},
}
@ARTICLE{pearson1974,
  AUTHOR =       {Pearson, Frederick S.},
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}
@ARTICLE{licklider1995,
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  volume =       "89",
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}
@BOOK{regan2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Regan, Patrick M.",
  TITLE =        "Civil Wars and Foreign Powers: Outside Intervention in Intrastate Conflict",
  PUBLISHER =    "Michigan",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  address =      "Ann Arbor,MI",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{regan2002,
  AUTHOR =       {Regan, Patrick},
  TITLE =        {Third-Party Interventions and the Duration of Intrastate Conflicts},
  JOURNAL =      {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  YEAR =         {2002},
  volume =       {46},
  number =       {1},
  pages =        {55--73},
  month =        {February},
}
@ARTICLE{regan1998,
  AUTHOR =       {Regan, Patrick},
  TITLE =        {Choosing to Intervene: Outside Interventions in Internal Conflicts},
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  YEAR =         {1998},
  volume =       {60},
  number =       {3},
  pages =        {754--779},
  month =        {August},
}
@ARTICLE{regan1996,
  AUTHOR =       {Regan, Patrick},
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  number =       {2},
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}
@ARTICLE{krain2000,
  AUTHOR =       {Krain, Matthew},
  TITLE =        {Democracy, Internal War, and State-Sponsored Mass Murder},
  JOURNAL =      {Human Rights Review},
  YEAR =         {2000},
  volume =       {1},
  number =       {3},
  pages =        {40-48},
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}
@BOOK{mueller1973,
  AUTHOR =       {Mueller, John},
  TITLE =        {War, Presidents , and Public Opinion },
  PUBLISHER =    {John Wiley and Sons},
  YEAR =         {1973},
  address =      {},
}

@ARTICLE{derouen2000,
  AUTHOR =       {DeRouen, Karl jr.},
  TITLE =        {Presidents and the Diversionary Use of Force: A Research Note},
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  YEAR =         {2000},
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  }
@ARTICLE{jamesandrioux1998,
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  volume =       {51},
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  }
@ARTICLE{hessnadorphanides2001,
  AUTHOR =       {Hess, Gregory and Athanasios Orphanides},
  TITLE =        {War and Democracy },
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  YEAR =         {2001},
  volume =       {109},
  number =       {4},
  pages =        {776-810},
  }
@ARTICLE{jamesandoneal1991,
  AUTHOR =       {james, Patrick and John Oneal},
  TITLE =        {the Influence of Domestic and International Politics on the President's Use of Force},
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  YEAR =         {1991},
  volume =       {35},
  number =       {2},
  pages =        {307-332},
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@ARTICLE{fordham2002,
  AUTHOR =       {Fordham, Benjamin O.},
  TITLE =        {Another look at "Parties, Voters, and the use of Force Abroad},
  JOURNAL =      {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  YEAR =         {2002},
  volume =       {46},
  number =       {4},
  pages =        {572-596},
  }
@ARTICLE{morganandbickers1992,
  AUTHOR =       {Morgan, Clifton T. and kenneth N. Bickers},
  TITLE =        {Domestic Discontent and the External use of Force},
  JOURNAL =      {The Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  YEAR =         {1992},
  volume =       {36},
  number =       {1},
  pages =        {25-52},
  }
@ARTICLE{morganandanderson1999,
  AUTHOR =       {Morgan, T. Clifton and Christopher J. Anderson},
  TITLE =        {Domestic Support and Diversionary External Conflict in Great Britain, 1950-1992},
  JOURNAL =      {Journal of Politics},
  YEAR =         {1999},
  volume =       {61},
  number =       {},
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@ARTICLE{miller1999,
  AUTHOR =       {Miller, Ross A.},
  TITLE =        {Regime type, Strategic Interaction, and Diversionary Use of Force},
  JOURNAL =      {JOurnal of COnflict Resolution},
  YEAR =         {1999},
  volume =       {43},
  number =       {},
  pages =        {388-402},
}
@ARTICLE{emizet2000,
  AUTHOR =       {Emizet, Kisangani},
  TITLE =        {The Massacre of Refugees in the Congo: A case of UN PEacekeeping Failure and International Law},
  JOURNAL =      {Journal of Modern African Studies},
  YEAR =         {2000},
  volume =       {38},
  number =       {},
  pages =        {163-202},
  }
@BOOK{gaubatz1999,
  AUTHOR =       {Gaubatz, Kurt T.},
  TITLE =        {Elections and War: The Electoral Incentive in the Democratic Politics of War and Peace},
  PUBLISHER =    {Stanford Unviersity Press},
  YEAR =         {1999},
  address =      {Stanford},
  }
@ARTICLE{montesquiou2006,
  AUTHOR =       {de Montesquiou, Alfred},
  TITLE =        {African Union Force Ineffective, Complain Refugees in Darfur},
  JOURNAL =      {Washington Post},
  YEAR =         {2006},
  volume =       {October 16},
  number =       {},
  pages =        {A15},
  }
@BOOK{bowden2000,
  AUTHOR =       {Bowden, Mark},
  TITLE =        {Black Hawk Down: A Story of Modern War},
  PUBLISHER =    {Penguin},
  YEAR =         {2000},
  address =      {New York},
}
@MISC{boutrosgali2004,
  author =       {Boutros-Gali, Boutros},
  title =        {Ghosts of Rwanda: Interview: Boutros Boutros-Gali},
  howpublished = {PBS Frontline},
  year =         {2004},
  month =        {January 21},
  source =       {http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/ghosts/interviews/ghali.html},
}
@TECHREPORT{unrwanda1999,
  AUTHOR =       {Carlson, Ingvarr and Han Sung-Joo and Rufus M. Kupolati},
  TITLE =        {Report of the Independent Inquiry into the Actions of the United Nations During the 1994 Genocide in Rwanda},
  INSTITUTION =  {United Nations},
  YEAR =         {1999},
  number =       {S/1999/1257},
}
@BOOK{Long2006,
  AUTHOR =       {Long, J Scott},
  TITLE =        {Regression Models for Categroical Outcomes Using Stata},
  PUBLISHER =    {Stata Press},
  YEAR =         {2006},
  address =      {College Station, Texas},
}
@BOOK{huckfeldt1982,
  AUTHOR =       {Huckfeldt, R. Robert and C.W. Kohfeld, and Thomas W. Likens},
  TITLE =        {Dynamic Modeling: An Introduction},
  PUBLISHER =    {Sage Publications},
  YEAR =         {1982},
  address =      {Newbury Park, California},
  isbn =         {0-8039-0946-2},
}
@MISC{garrison2002,
  author =       {Garrison, Steve R.},
  title =        {Latin American Political Protest Project },
  howpublished = {Computer File},
  year =         {2002},
  month =        {},
  note =         {},
  abstract =     {},
  keywords =     {},
  source =       {http://faculty.mwsu.edu/politicalscience/steve.garrison/LAPP.asp},
}
@CONFERENCE{holden2002,
  author =       {Holden, Ken},
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  year =         {2002},
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}
@BOOK{lovemananddavies1997,
  AUTHOR =       {},
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}
@UNPUBLISHED{enterlineandbalch-lindsay2002,
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  TITLE =        {By Sword and Signature? A Competing Risks Approach to Third Party Intervention and Civil War Outcomes, 1816-1997},
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  year =         {2002},
}
@ARTICLE{rossanaandseater1995,
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  volume =       {13},
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@BOOK{tilly1978,
  AUTHOR =       {Tilly, Charles },
  TITLE =        {From Mobilization to Revolution },
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@ARTICLE{wei1982,
  AUTHOR =       {Wei, Willam},
  TITLE =        {The Effects of Systematic Sampling and Temporal Aggregation on Casuality--A Cautionary Note},
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@ARTICLE{zellnerandmontmarquette1971,
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  TITLE =        {A Study of Some Aspects of Temporal Aggregation Problems in Econometeric Analyses},
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  volume =       {53},
  number =       {4},
  pages =        {335-342},
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@ARTICLE{shellman2004b,
  AUTHOR =       {Shellman, Stephen M.},
  TITLE =        {Measuring the Intensity of Intranational Political Interactions Event Data: Two Interval-Like Scales},
  JOURNAL =      {International Interactions},
  YEAR =         {2004},
  volume =       {30},
  number =       {2},
  pages =        {109-141},
  }
@ARTICLE{collierandhoeffler2002,
  AUTHOR =       {Collier, Paul and Anke Hoeffler},
  TITLE =        {Greed and Greviance in Civil Wars},
  JOURNAL =      {Centre for the Study of African Economies, Oxford University},
  YEAR =         {2002},
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}
@ARTICLE{elbadawiandsambanis2000,
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  }
@ARTICLE{parrishandsaila1970,
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}
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  TITLE =        {Signals of Reconciliation: Institution-Building and the Resolution of Civil Wars},
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  YEAR =         {2005},
  volume =       {7},
  number =       {2},
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}
@ARTICLE{walter2002,
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  TITLE =        {Re-Conceptualizing Conflict Resolution as a Three-Stage Process},
  JOURNAL =      {Intenational Negotiation},
  YEAR =         {2002},
  volume =       {7},
  number =       {7},
  pages =        {299-311},
}
@ARTICLE{walter1997,
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  TITLE =        {The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement},
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  number =       {3},
  pages =        {335-364},
}
@BOOK{goldberg1991,
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}
@ARTICLE{grossman1992,
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}
@ARTICLE{francisco1995,
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  volume =       {39},
  number =       {2},
  pages =        {263-282},
}
@ARTICLE{francisco1996,
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  TITLE =        {Coercion an Protest: An Empirical Test in Two Democratic States},
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  number =       {4},
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}
@ARTICLE{fearonandlaitin2003,
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  TITLE =        {Ethjnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War},
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  YEAR =         {2003},
  volume =       {97},
  number =       {1},
  pages =        {75-90},
}
@ARTICLE{pickering2005,
  AUTHOR =       {Pickering, Jeff and Emizet F. Kisangani},
  TITLE =        {Democracy and Diversionary Military Intervention: Reassessing Regime Type and the Diversionary Hypothesis},
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  YEAR =         {2005},
  volume =       {49},
  number =       {1},
  pages =        {23-44},
}
@ARTICLE{jordaandmarcellino2002,
  AUTHOR =       {Jorda, Oscar and Massimiliano Marcellino},
  TITLE =        {Modeling High-Frequency FX Data Dynamics},
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  YEAR =         {2002},
  volume =       {7},
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  pages =        {618-635},
}
@ARTICLE{shellman2004,
  AUTHOR =       {Stephen Shellman},
  TITLE =        {Time Series Intervals and Statistical Inference: The Effects of Temporal Aggregation on Event Data Analysis},
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  YEAR =         {2004},
  volume =       {12},
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  pages =        {97-104},
}
@ARTICLE{altetal2001,
  AUTHOR =       {Alt James, Gary King, and Curtis S. Signorino},
  TITLE =        {Aggregation Among Binary, Count, and Duration Models: Estimating the Same Quantities from Different Levels of Data},
  JOURNAL =      {Political Analysis},
  YEAR =         {2001},
  volume =       {9},
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  pages =        {21-44},
}
@ARTICLE{freeman1989,
  AUTHOR =       {Freeman, John R.},
  TITLE =        {Systematic Sampling, Temporal Aggregation, and the Study of Political Relationships},
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}
@ARTICLE{goldstein1992,
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  TITLE =        {A Conflict-Cooperation Scale for WEIS Events Data},
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}
@BOOK{franzosi1995,
  AUTHOR =       {Franzosi, Roberto},
  editor =       {},
  TITLE =        {The Puzzle of Strikes: Class and State Strategies in Postwar Italy},
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  YEAR =         {1995},
  address =      {Cambridge},
}
@ARTICLE{marcellino1999,
  AUTHOR =       {Marcellino, Massimiliano},
  TITLE =        {Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Empirical Analysis},
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  YEAR =         {1999},
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}
@ARTICLE{joradandmarcellino1999,
  AUTHOR =       {Marcellino, Massimiliano},
  TITLE =        {1999},
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}
@ARTICLE{moore1998,
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  TITLE =        {Repression and Dissent: Substitution, Context, and Timing},
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}
 @ARTICLE{rossanaandseater1995,
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  TITLE =        {Temporal Aggregation and Economic Time Series},
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  YEAR =         {1995},
  volume =       {13},
  number =       {4},
  pages =        {441-51},
  }
@INBOOK{schrodt1995,
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  editor =       {Neack, Laura, Jeanne A. K. Hey, and Patrick J. Haney},
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  CHAPTER =      {Event Data in Foreign Policy Analysis},
  pages =        {145-166},
  PUBLISHER =    {Prentice Hall },
  YEAR =         {1995},
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}
@BOOK{mcadam1982,
  AUTHOR =       {McAdam, Doug},
  editor =       {},
  TITLE =        {Political Process and the Development of Black Insurgency 1930-1970},
  PUBLISHER =    {University of Chicago Press},
  YEAR =         {1982},
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@BOOK{gurr1970,
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  editor =       {},
  TITLE =        {Why Men Rebel},
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 }
@ARTICLE{sambanis2004,
  AUTHOR =       {Sambanis, Nicholas},
  TITLE =        {What is Civil War? Conceptual and Empirical Complexities of an Operational Definition},
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  YEAR =         {2004},
  volume =       {48},
  number =       {6},
  pages =        {814-858},
}
@ARTICLE{harmel1980,
  AUTHOR =       {Harmel, Robert},
  TITLE =        {`Persistence and Change' Revisited: Some Consequences of Using Different Operationalizations of `Change of Polity'},
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  YEAR =         {1980},
  volume =       {8},
  pages =        {189-214},
}
@BOOK{kaminiski1992,
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  TITLE =        {An Institutional Theory of Communist Regimes: Design, Function, and Breakdown},
  PUBLISHER =    {ICS Press},
  YEAR =         {1992},
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}
@BOOK{morgenthau1973,
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  TITLE =        {Politics Among Nations},
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}
@ARTICLE{gelpigriesdorf2001,
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}
@BOOK{tilly1990,
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  TITLE =        {Coercion, Capital, and European States, A.D. 990-1990.},
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}
@BOOK{collins1981,
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@ARTICLE{gasiorowski1995,
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@BOOK{brinton1965,
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@ARTICLE{gurr1974,
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}
@ARTICLE{lichbach1981,
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@ARTICLE{walter1997,
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  volume =       {51},
  number =       {3},
  pages =        {335-364},
}
@ARTICLE{smith1998,
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@ARTICLE{chiozzagoemans2004,
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  TITLE =        {International Conflict and the Tenure of Leaders: Is War Still Ex Post Inefficient?},
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  YEAR =         {2004},
  volume =       {48},
  number =       {3},
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@INBOOK{francisco2000b,
  AUTHOR =       {Francisco, Ronald},
  editor =       {Davenport, Christian},
  TITLE =        {Paths to State Repression: Human Rights Violations and Contentious Politics},
  CHAPTER =      {Why are Collective Conflicts "Stable"?},
  PUBLISHER =    {Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, Inc.},
  YEAR =         {2000},
  address =      {Lanham, Maryland},
}
@BOOK{francisco2000a,
  AUTHOR =       {Francisco, Ronald},
  TITLE =        {The Politics of Regime Transitions},
  PUBLISHER =    {Westview Press},
  YEAR =         {2000},
  address =      {Boulder, Colorado},
}
@BOOK{lichbach1995,
  AUTHOR =       {Lichbach, Mark I.},
  editor =       {},
  TITLE =        {The Rebel's Dilemma},
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  YEAR =         {1995},
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}
@BOOK{johnson1966,
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@ARTICLE{buenodemesquitasiversonwoller1992,
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  YEAR =         "1992",
  volume =       "86",
  issue =        "3",
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@ARTICLE{edelstein2004,
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  TITLE =        "Occupational Hazards: Why Military Occupations Succeed or Fail",
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  YEAR =         "2004",
  volume =       "29",
  issue =           "1",
  month=         "Summer",
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}
@ARTICLE{taverneiseburns2005,
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@ARTICLE{hashmi2005,
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  TITLE =        {The Ethics of Exit: An Islamic Solution},
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@ARTICLE{elshtain2005,
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  TITLE =        {The Ethics of Exit: Tightly Tied to the New Iraq},
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  YEAR =         {2005},
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  TITLE =        {The Ethics of Exit: A Job Half Done},
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@ARTICLE{kaplan2005,
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@ARTICLE{buenodemesquitasiverson1995,
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@ARTICLE{brooks1999,
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@BOOK{verona1992,
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  TITLE =        {Military Occupation and Diplomacy: Soviet Troops in Romania, 1944-1958},
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  YEAR =         {1992},
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}
@BOOK{carlton1992,
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  address =      {Savage, Maryland},
}
@BOOK{blochhoselitz1944,
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@ARTICLE{braumoeller2004,
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  TITLE =        "Hypothesis Testing and Multiplicative Interaction Terms",
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  volume =       "58",
  issue =        "4",
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}
@ARTICLE{gordon2002,
  AUTHOR =       "Gordon, Sanford",
  TITLE =        "Stochastic Dependence in Competing Risks",
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@ARTICLE{zornvanwinkle2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Zorn, Christopher and Steven R. Van Winkle",
  TITLE =        "A Competing Risks Model of Supreme Court Vacancies, 1795-1992",
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  YEAR =         "2000",
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@ARTICLE{diermeierstevenson1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Diermeier, Daniel and Randy Stevenson",
  TITLE =        "Cabinet Survival and Competing Risks",
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  YEAR =         "1999",
  volume =       "43",
  issue =        "4",
  pages =        "1051-68",
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@ARTICLE{licklider1995,
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  volume =       "89",
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@INCOLLECTION{wagner1993,
  AUTHOR =       {Wagner, Robert Harrison},
  TITLE =        {The Causes of Peace},
  BOOKTITLE =    {Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End},
  PUBLISHER =    {New York University Press},
  YEAR =         {1993},
  editor =       {Roy Licklider},
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}
@BOOK{suhrkenoble1977,
  editor =       {Suhrke, Astri and Lela Garner Noble},
  TITLE =        {Ethnic Conflict in International Relations},
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@INCOLLECTION{holl1993,
  AUTHOR =       {Holl, Jane E.},
  TITLE =        {When War Doesn't Work: Understanding the Relationship between the Battlefield and the Negotiating Table},
  BOOKTITLE =    {Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End},
  PUBLISHER =    {New York University Press},
  YEAR =         {1993},
  editor =       {Roy Licklider},
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@INCOLLECTION{deutsch1964,
  AUTHOR =       {Deutsch, Karl W.},
  TITLE =        {External Involvement in Internal War},
  BOOKTITLE =    {Internal War: Problems and Approaches},
  PUBLISHER =    {Free Press},
  YEAR =         {1964},
  editor =       {Harry Eckstein},
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@INCOLLECTION{modelski1964,
  AUTHOR =       {Modelski, George},
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  editor =       {Rosenau, James N.},
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@BOOK{stam1996,
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  TITLE =        {Win, Lose, or Draw: Domestic Politics and the Crucible of War},
  PUBLISHER =    {University of Michigan Press},
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@ARTICLE{porsholt1966,
  AUTHOR =       "Porsholt, Lars",
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  TITLE =        {Termination of War and Treaties of Peace},
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@ARTICLE{holsti1966,
  AUTHOR =       "Holsti, Kalevi J.",
  TITLE =        "Resolving International Conflicts: a Taxonomy of Behavior and Some Figures on Procedures",
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@ARTICLE{carroll1969,
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@BOOK{boxsteffensmeierjones2004,
  AUTHOR =       {Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M. and Bradford S. Jones},
  TITLE =        {Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists},
  PUBLISHER =    {Cambridge University Press},
  YEAR =         {2004},
  address =      {Cambridge, UK},
}
@ARTICLE{masonweingartenfett1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Mason, T. David and Patrick J. Fett and Joseph P. Weingarten",
  TITLE =        "Win, Lose, or Draw: Predicting the Outcome of Civil Wars",
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  YEAR =         "1999",
  volume =       "52",
  issue =        "2",
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}
@INCOLLECTION{rosenau1964,
  AUTHOR =       {Rosenau, James N.},
  TITLE =        {Internal War as an International Event},
  BOOKTITLE =    {International Aspects of Civil Strife},
  PUBLISHER =    {Princeton University Press},
  YEAR =         {1964},
  editor =       {Rosenau, James N.},
}
@BOOK{holbrooke1998,
  AUTHOR =       {Holbrooke, Richard},
  TITLE =        {To End a War},
  PUBLISHER =    {Random House},
  YEAR =         {1998},
  address =      {New York, NY},
}
@BOOK{fitzpatrickmodlin1986,
  AUTHOR =       {Fitzpatrick, Gary L. and Marily J. Modlin},
  TITLE =        {Direct-Line Distances (United States Edition)},
  PUBLISHER =    {The Scarecrow Press, Inc.},
  YEAR =         {1986},
  address =      {Metuchen, New Jersey},
}
@UNPUBLISHED{giblersarkees2002,
  AUTHOR =       {Gibler, Douglas M. and Meredith Sarkees},
  TITLE =        {Coding Manual for v3.0 of the Correlates of War Formal Interstate Alliance Data set, 1816-2000},
  NOTE =         {Typescript},
  year =         {2002},
}
@UNPUBLISHED{reiter2000,
  AUTHOR =       {Reiter, Dan},
  TITLE =        {Interstate Alliances, 1985-1992: version 2},
  NOTE =         {Unpublished Manuscript. Emory University, Department of Political Science},
  year =         {2000},
}
@UNPUBLISHED{maoz1999,
  AUTHOR =       {Maoz, Zeev},
  TITLE =        {Dyadic Militarized Interstate Disputes, version 1.1},
  NOTE =         {Available at ftp://spirit.tau.ac.il/zeevmaoz/dyadmid.doc},
  year =         {1999},
}
@ARTICLE{smallsinger1969,
  AUTHOR =       "Small, Melvin and J. David Singer",
  TITLE =        "Formal Alliances, 1815-1965:  An Extension of the Basic Data",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Peace Research",
  YEAR =         "1969",
  volume =       "6",
  pages =        "257-282",
}
@ARTICLE{werner2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Werner, Suzanne",
  TITLE =        "The Effects of Political Similarity on the Onset of Militarized Disputes, 1816-1985",
  JOURNAL =      "Political Resaerch Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  volume =       "53",
  issue =        "2",
  pages =        "343-374",
}
@BOOK{peceny1999b,
  AUTHOR =       {Peceny, Mark},
  TITLE =        {Democracy at the Point of Bayonets},
  PUBLISHER =    {The Pennsylvania State University Press},
  YEAR =         {1999},
  address =      {University Park, Pennsylvania},
}
@BOOK{meernik2004,
  AUTHOR =       {Meernik, James David},
  TITLE =        {The Political Use of Military Force in US Foreign Policy},
  PUBLISHER =    {Ashgate},
  YEAR =         {2004},
  address =      {Aldershot, England},
}
@BOOK{banks1996,
  AUTHOR =       {Banks, Arthur S.},
  TITLE =        {Cross-National--Time-Series Data Archive},
  PUBLISHER =    {Binghamton, NY: Center for Social Analysis},
  YEAR =         {1996},
  edition =      {1997},
}
@ARTICLE{enterlinegreig2005a,
  AUTHOR =       {Enterline, Andrew J. and J. Michael Greig},
  TITLE =        {Beacons of Hope? The Impact of Imposed Democracy on Regional Peace, Democracy and Prosperity},
  JOURNAL =      {Journal of Politics},
  YEAR =         {Forthcoming},
}
@UNPUBLISHED{enterlinegreig2005b,
  AUTHOR =       {Enterline, Andrew J. and J. Michael Greig},
  TITLE =        {Beacons of Hope? National and Regional Implications of Externally Imposed Polities on Peace, Democracy and Prosperity},
  NOTE =         {Unpublished Manuscript. Department of Political Science, University of North Texas},
  year =         {2005},
}
@BOOK{stearns2001,
  editor =       {Stearns, Peter N.},
  TITLE =        {The Encyclopedia of World History},
  PUBLISHER =    {Houghton Mifflin},
  YEAR =         {2001},
  address =      {New York},
  edition =      {Sixth},
}
@ARTICLE{carothers2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Carothers, Thomas",
  TITLE =        "Promoting Democracy and Fighting Terror",
  JOURNAL =      "Foreign Affairs",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  number =        "1",
  volume =       "82",
  month =        "January/February",
  pages =        "84-97",
}
@ARTICLE{benomar2004,
  AUTHOR =       "Benomar, Jamal",
  TITLE =        "Constitution-Making After Conflict: Lessons for Iraq",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Democracy",
  YEAR =         "2004",
  number =        "2",
  volume =       "15",
  pages =        "81-95",
}
@BOOK{abernathy2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Abernathy, David B.",
  TITLE =        "The Dynamics of Global Dominance",
  PUBLISHER =    "Yale University Press",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  address =      "New Haven, Conn.",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{boxjones2004,
  AUTHOR =       "Box-Steffensmeier, Janet and Bradford Jones",
  TITLE =        "Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists",
  PUBLISHER =    "Cambridge University Press",
  YEAR =         "2004",
  address =      "Cambridge, United Kingdom",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{marsden2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Marsden, Peter",
  TITLE =        "Afghanistan: The Reconstrution Process",
  JOURNAL =      "International Affairs",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  number =        "1",
  volume =       "79",
  pages =        "16-32",
}
@ARTICLE{ottaway2002,
  AUTHOR =       "Ottaway, Marina",
  TITLE =        "Rebuilding Afghanistan",
  JOURNAL =      "Foreign Policy",
  YEAR =         "2002",
  month =        "September/October",
  volume =       "132",
  pages =        "16-32",
}
@ARTICLE{ottawaylieven2002,
  AUTHOR =       "Ottaway, Marina and Anatol Lieven",
  TITLE =        "Rebuilding Afghanistan",
  JOURNAL =      "Current History",
  YEAR =         "2002",
  month =        "March",
  volume =       "653",
  number =       "101",
  pages =        "133-38",
}
@ARTICLE{diamond2004,
  AUTHOR =       "Diamond, Larry",
  TITLE =        "What Went Wrong in Iraq?",
  JOURNAL =      "Foreign Affairs",
  YEAR =         "2004",
  month =        "September/October",
  volume =       "83",
  number =       "5",
  pages =        "34-56",
}
@ARTICLE{chesterman2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Chesterman, Simon",
  TITLE =        "Walking Softly in Afghanistan: The Future of UN-State Building",
  JOURNAL =      "Survival",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  month =        "Autumn",
  volume =       "44",
  number =       "3",
  pages =        "37-45",
}
@ARTICLE{remmer1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Remmer, Karen L.",
  TITLE =        "Regime Sustainability in the Latin Caribbean, 1944-1994",
  JOURNAL =      "The Journal of Develping Areas",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  month =        "Spring",
  volume =       "33",
  pages =        "331-54",
}
@ARTICLE{dodge2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Dodge, Toby",
  TITLE =        "US Intervention and Possible Iraqi Futures",
  JOURNAL =      "Survival",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  month =        "Autumn",
  volume =       "45",
  number =       "3",
  pages =        "103-122",
}
@ARTICLE{dawisha2004,
  AUTHOR =       "Dawisha, Adeed",
  TITLE =        "Iraq: Setbacks, Advances, Prospects",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Democracy",
  YEAR =         "2004",
  volume =       "15",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "5-20",
}
@BOOK{andersonstansfield2004,
  AUTHOR =       "Anderson, Liam and Gareth Stansfield",
  TITLE =        "The Future of Iraq : Dictatorship, Democracy or Division?",
  PUBLISHER =    "Palgrave Macmillan",
  address =      "New York",
  YEAR =         "2004",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{schedler2001,
  AUTHOR =       "Schedler, Andreas",
  TITLE =        "Taking Uncertainty Seriously: The Blurred Boundaries of Democratic Transition and Consolidation",
  JOURNAL =      "Democratization",
  YEAR =         "2001",
  volume =       "8",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "1-22",
}
@ARTICLE{yaphe2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Yaphe, Judith S.",
  TITLE =        "War and Occupation and Iraq: What Went Right? What Could Go Wrong?",
  JOURNAL =      "The Middle East Journal",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  volume =       "57",
  number =       "3",
  pages =        "381-99",
}
@ARTICLE{wimmer2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Wimmer, Andreas",
  TITLE =        "Democracy and Ethno-religious Conflict in Iraq",
  JOURNAL =      "Survival",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  month =        "Winter",
  volume =       "45",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "111-134",
}
@ARTICLE{dobbins2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Dobbins, James F.",
  TITLE =        "America's Role in Nation-building: From Germany to Iraq",
  JOURNAL =      "Survival",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  month =        "Winter",
  volume =       "44",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "87-110",
}
@ARTICLE{byman2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Byman, Daniel",
  TITLE =        "Constructing a Democratic Iraq: Challenges and Opportunities",
  JOURNAL =      "International Security",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  volume =       "68",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "48-78",
}
@UNPUBLISHED{enterlinegreigmiller2005,
  AUTHOR =       {Enterline, Andrew J. and J. Michael Greig and Dawn Miller},
  TITLE =        {To Live in Freedom? Explaining the Persistence of Externally Imposed Polities},
  NOTE =         {Unpublised Manuscript. University of North Texas, Department of Political Science},
  year =         {2005},
}
@ARTICLE{gurr1974,
  AUTHOR =       "Gurr, Ted Robert",
  TITLE =        "Persistence and Change in Political Systems, 1800-1971",
  JOURNAL =      "American Political Science Review",
  YEAR =         "1974",
  volume =       "68",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "1482-1504",
}
@BOOK{dobbinsmcginncranejoneslalrathmellswangertimilsina2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Dobbins, James and John G. McGinn and Keith Crane and Seth G. Jones and Rollie Lal and Andrew Rathmell and Rachel Swanger and Anga Timilsina",
  TITLE =        "America's Role in Nation--Building: From German to Iraq",
  PUBLISHER =    "Rand Corporation",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  file = F
}
@TECHREPORT{ansaricooperdodgehollisshehadiyamani2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Ansari, Ali and Malcolm Cooper and Toby Dodge and Rosemary Hollis and Nadim Shehadi and Mai Yamani",
  TITLE =        "Iraq: The Regional Fallout",
  INSTITUTION =  "Royal Institute for International Affairs/Chatham House",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  type =         "Briefing Paper",
  number =       "Middle East Programme BP 03/02",
  month =        "February",
}
@TECHREPORT{allafansariassamlislowemekelbergozelstansfieldyamani2004,
  AUTHOR =       "Allaf, Rime and Ali Ansari and Maha Assam and Rosemary Hollis and Robert Lowe and Yossi Mekelberg and Soli Ozel and Gareth Stansfield and Mai Yamani",
  TITLE =        "Iraq in Transition: Vortex or Catalyst?",
  INSTITUTION =  "Royal Institute for International Affairs/Chatham House",
  YEAR =         "2004",
  type =         "Briefing Paper",
  number =       "Middle East Programme BP 04/02",
  month =        "September",
}
@ARTICLE{gleditschward2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Gleditsch, Kristian S. and Michael D. Ward",
  TITLE =        "War and Peace in Space and Time: The Role of Democratization",
  JOURNAL =      "International Studies Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  volume =       "44",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "1-29",
}
@ARTICLE{sanger2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Sanger, David",
  TITLE =        "Bush Cites Philippines as Model in Rebuilding Iraq",
  JOURNAL =      "New York Times",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  volume =       "October 19",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{telhami2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Telhami, Shibley",
  TITLE =        "After a War in Iraq: Democracy, Militancy, and Peacemaking?",
  JOURNAL =      "International Studies Perspectives",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  volume =       "4",
  pages =        "182-185",
}
@ARTICLE{saidemanetal2002,
  AUTHOR =       "Saideman, Stephen and David J. Lanoue and Michael Campenni and Samuel Stanton",
  TITLE =        "Democratization, Political Institutions, and Ethnic Conflict: A Pooled Time-Series Analysis, 1985-1998",
  JOURNAL =      "Comparative Political Studies",
  YEAR =         "2002",
  volume =       "35",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "103-129",
}
@ARTICLE{neep2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Neep, Daniel",
  TITLE =        "The Impact of War in Iraq: Democratization or Destabilization of the Middle East?",
  JOURNAL =      "RUSI Journal",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  volume =       "148",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "10-15",
}
@ARTICLE{mansfieldsnydera2002,
  AUTHOR =       "Mansfield, Edward D. and Jack Snyder",
  TITLE =        "Democratic Transitions, Institutional Strength, and War",
  JOURNAL =      "International Organization",
  YEAR =         "2002",
  volume =       "56",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "297-337",
}
@ARTICLE{mansfieldsnyderb2002,
  AUTHOR =       "Mansfield, Edward D. and Jack Snyder",
  TITLE =        "Incomplete Democratization and the Outbreak of Militarized Disputes",
  JOURNAL =      "International Studies Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "2002",
  volume =       "46",
  pages =        "529-549",
}
@ARTICLE{kissane2004,
  AUTHOR =       "Kissane, Bill",
  TITLE =        "Democratization, State Formation, and Civil War in Finland and Ireland: A Reflection on the Democratic Peace Hypothesis",
  JOURNAL =      "Comparative Political Studies",
  YEAR =         "2004",
  volume =       "37",
  number =       "8",
  pages =        "139-149",
}
@ARTICLE{kuglerfeng1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Kugler, Jacek and Yi Feng",
  TITLE =        "Explaining and Modeling Democratic Transitions",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  volume =       "43",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "139-149",
}
@ARTICLE{fengzak1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Feng, Yi and Paul J. Zak",
  TITLE =        "Determinants of Democratic Transitions",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  volume =       "43",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "162-177",
}
@ARTICLE{gledistchward2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Gledistch, Kristian S. and Michael D. Ward",
  TITLE =        "War and Peace in Space and Time: The Role of Democratization",
  JOURNAL =      "International Studies Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  volume =       "44",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "1-29",
}
@ARTICLE{coloresithompson2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Colaresi, Michael and William R. Thompson",
  TITLE =        "The Economic Development--Democratization Relationship: Does the Outside World Matter?",
  JOURNAL =      "Comparative Political Studies",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  volume =       "36",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "381-403",
}
@ARTICLE{starrlindborg2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Starr, Harvey and Christina Lindborg",
  TITLE =        "Democratic Dominoes Revisited: The Hazards of Governmental Transitions, 1974-1996",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  volume =       "47",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "490-519",
}
@BOOK{zakaria2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Zakaria, Fareed",
  TITLE =        "The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad",
  PUBLISHER =    "W. W. Norton",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  address =      "New York",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{ajami2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Ajami, Faoud",
  TITLE =        "Iraq and the Arabs' Future",
  JOURNAL =      "Foreign Affairs",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  volume =       "82",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "2-18",
  month =        "January/February",
}
@ARTICLE{nakash2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Nakash, Yitzhak",
  TITLE =        "The Shi`ites and the Future of Iraq",
  JOURNAL =      "Foreign Affairs",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  volume =       "82",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "17-26",
  month =        "July/August",
}
@ARTICLE{patten2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Patten, Chris",
  TITLE =        "Democracy Doesn't Flow From the Barrel of a Gun",
  JOURNAL =      "Foreign Policy",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  pages =        "40-44",
  month =        "September/October",
}
@ARTICLE{dawishadawisha2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Dawisha, Adeed and Karen Dawisha",
  TITLE =        "How to Build a Democratic Iraq",
  JOURNAL =      "Foreign Affairs",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  volume =       "82",
  number =       "3",
  pages =        "36-50",
  month =        "May/June",
}
@ARTICLE{cedermangleditsch2004,
  AUTHOR =       "Cederman, Lars-Erik and Kristian S. Gleditsch",
  TITLE =        "Conquest and Regime Change: An Evolutionary Model of the Spread of Democracy and Peace",
  JOURNAL =      "International Studies Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "2004",
  volume =       "48",
  number =       "3",
  pages =        "603-629",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{gleditsch2002,
  AUTHOR =       "Gleditsch, Kristian",
  TITLE =        "All International Politics is Local: The Diffusion of Conflict, Integration, and Democratization",
  PUBLISHER =    "University of Michigan",
  YEAR =         "2002",
  address =      "Ann Arbor, Michigan",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{beckkatztucker1997,
  AUTHOR =       "Beck, Nathaniel and Jonathan Katz and Richard Tucker",
  TITLE =        "Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable",
  JOURNAL =      "American Journal of Political Science",
  YEAR =         "1997",
  volume =       "42",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "1260-1288",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{gleditschward2001,
  AUTHOR =       "Gleditsch, Kristian S. and Michael D. Ward",
  TITLE =        "Measuring Space: A Minimum Distance Database",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Peace Research",
  YEAR =         "2001",
  volume =       "38",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "749-68",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{gartzke1998,
  AUTHOR =       "Gartzke, Erik",
  TITLE =        "Kant We All Just Get Along? Opporunity, Willingness, and the Origins of the Democratic Peace",
  JOURNAL =      "American Journal of Political Science",
  YEAR =         "1998",
  volume =       "42",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "1-27",
  file = F
}
@INBOOK{singerbremerstuckey1972,
  AUTHOR =       "Singer, J. David and Stuart A. Bremer and J. Stuckey",
  editor =       "Bruce Russett",
  TITLE =        "Peace, War and Numbers",
  CHAPTER =      "Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and War, 1820-1965",
  pages =        "19-48",
  PUBLISHER =    "Sage",
  YEAR =         "1972",
  address =      "Beverly Hills",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{marshalljaggers2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Marshall, Monty G. and Keith Jaggers",
  TITLE =        "Polity IV dataset",
  PUBLISHER =    "University of Maryland",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  address =      "College Park, Maryland",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{gurrjaggersmoore1996,
  AUTHOR =       "Gurr, Ted and Keith Jaggers and Will H. Moore",
  TITLE =        "Polity III: Political Structure and Regime Change, 1800-1993",
  PUBLISHER =    "University of Colorado",
  YEAR =         "1996",
  address =      "Boulder, Colorado",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{buenodemesquitamorrowsiversonsmith1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce and James D. Morrow and Randolph M. Siverson and Alistair Smith",
  TITLE =        "An Institutional Explanation for the Democratic Peace",
  JOURNAL =      "American Political Science Review",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  volume =       "93",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "791-808",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{wendt1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Wendt, Alexander",
  TITLE =        "Social Theory of International Relations",
  PUBLISHER =    "Cambridge University",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  address =      "Cambridge",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{finnemoresikkink1998,
  AUTHOR =       "Finnemore, Martha and Kathryn Sikkink",
  TITLE =        "International Norm Dyamics and Political Change",
  JOURNAL =      "Internatinal Organization",
  YEAR =         "1998",
  volume =       "52",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "887-917",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{bremer1992,
  AUTHOR =       "Bremer, Stuart A.",
  TITLE =        "Dangerous Dyads: Conditions Affecting the Likelihood of Interstate War, 1816-1965",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "1992",
  volume =       "36",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "309-41",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{cederman2001,
  AUTHOR =       "Cederman, Lars-Erik",
  TITLE =        "Back to Kant: Reinterpreting the Democratic Peace as a Macrohistorical Learning Process",
  JOURNAL =      "American Political Science Review",
  YEAR =         "2001",
  volume =       "95",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "15-31",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{mitchell2002,
  AUTHOR =       "Mitchell, Sara Mclaughlin",
  TITLE =        "A Kantian System? Democracy and Third Party Dispute Resolution",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "2002",
  volume =       "46",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "749-59",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{huntley1996,
  AUTHOR =       "Huntley, Wade L.",
  TITLE =      "Kant's Third Image: Systemic Sources of the Liberal Peace",
  JOURNAL =        "International Studies Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "1996",
  volume =       "40",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "45-76",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{mitchellgateshegre1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Mitchell, Sara M. and Scott Gates and Havard Hegre",
  TITLE =        "Evolution in Democracy--War Dynamics",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  volume =       "43",
  number =       "6",
  pages =        "771-92",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{senese1997,
  AUTHOR =       "Senese, Paul",
  TITLE =        "Costs and Demands: International Sources of Dispute Challenges and Reciprocation",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "1997",
  volume =       "41",
  number =       "3",
  pages =        "407-27",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{greenkahldiehl1998,
  AUTHOR =       "Green, David M. and Chad Kahl and Paul F. Diehl",
  TITLE =        "The Price of Peace: A Predictive Model of UN Peacekeeping Fiscal Costs",
  JOURNAL =      "Policy Studies Journal",
  YEAR =         "1998",
  volume =       "26",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "620-635",
  file = F
}
@MISC{blair2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Blair, Tony",
  TITLE =        "Statement by Prime Minister Tony Blar to troops in Iraq",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  volume =       ", May 29",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{mccain2003,
  AUTHOR =       "McCain, John",
  TITLE =        "Why We Must Win",
  JOURNAL =      "The Washington Post",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  volume =       ", August 31",
  pages =        "B07, 6",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{bushaeispeech2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Bush, George W.",
  TITLE =        "In the President's Words: `Free People Will Keep the Peace of the World'",
  JOURNAL =      "New York Times",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  volume =       "February 27",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{bushnedspeech2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Bush, George W.",
  TITLE =        "Iraqi Democracy Will Succeed",
  JOURNAL =      "New York Times",
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@MISC{chalabi2003,
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@BOOK{tetlockbelkin1996,
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@BOOK{przeworski1991,
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@TECHREPORT{easterly1999,
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@ARTICLE{leblang1997,
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@BOOK{przeworski1991,
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@BOOK{reuschmeyerstephensstephens1992,
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@INPROCEEDINGS{diamond1992,
  AUTHOR =       "Diamond, Larry",
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@ARTICLE{boxsteffensmeierarnoldzorn1996,
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@ARTICLE{boxsteffensmeierreiterzorn2003,
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@BOOK{liao1994,
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@BOOK{menard1995,
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@ARTICLE{ellingsen2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Ellingsen, Tanja",
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@BOOK{lemke2002,
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@BOOK{solingen1998,
  AUTHOR =       "Solingen, Etel",
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@ARTICLE{hegreellingsengatesgleditsch2001,
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  TITLE =        "Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816-1992",
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  YEAR =         "2001",
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@ARTICLE{tyler2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Tyler, Patrick E.",
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@ARTICLE{telhami2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Telhami, Shibley",
  TITLE =        "Is Iraq More Crucial to Regional Peace Than Palestine?; An Arab-Israeli Pact Must Come First",
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  YEAR =         "2003",
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@ARTICLE{tenanhaus2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Tanenhaus, Sam",
  TITLE =        "From Vietnam to Iraq; The Rise and Fall and Rise of the Domino Theory",
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  YEAR =         "2003",
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@ARTICLE{sachs2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Sachs, Susan",
  TITLE =        "The Question in Cairo: Will Soap Prices Fall And Democracy Rise?",
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  YEAR =         "2003",
  volume =       "April 20",
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@ARTICLE{muasher2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Muasher, Marwan",
  TITLE =        "A Path to Arab Democracy",
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  volume =       "April 26",
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@ARTICLE{macfarquhar2003,
  AUTHOR =       "MacFarquhar, Neil",
  TITLE =        "Humiliation And Rage Stalk the Arab World",
  JOURNAL =      "New York Times",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  volume =       "April 13",
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@ARTICLE{bernstein2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Bernstein, Richard",
  TITLE =        "Hyper Power; The New Agenda: Go It Alone. Remake the World",
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  YEAR =         "2003",
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@ARTICLE{bumiller2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Bumiller, Elisabeth",
  TITLE =        "Bush Says Ousting Hussein Could Aid Peace in the Mideast",
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@ARTICLE{bennet2003,
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@ARTICLE{rubin2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Rubin, Elizabeth",
  TITLE =        "The Millimeter Revolution",
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@BOOK{maoz1996,
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@ARTICLE{lane1995,
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  editor =       "Bruce Russett",
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@MISC{gurr1990,
  author =       "Gurr, Ted Robert",
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@ARTICLE{mcLaughlingateshegregissingergleditsch1998,
  AUTHOR =       "McLaughlin, Sara and Scott Gates and Havard Hegre and Ranveig Gissinger and Nils Petter Gleditsch",
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@BOOK{barbieri2002,
  AUTHOR =       "Barbieri, Katherine",
  TITLE =        "The Liberal Illusion: Does Trade Promote Peace",
  PUBLISHER =    "University of Michigan Press",
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@ARTICLE{barbieri1996,
  AUTHOR =       "Barbieri, Katherine",
  TITLE =        "Economic Interdependence: A Path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict?",
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@MISC{bennet2003,
  author =       "Bennet, James",
  title =        "Can You Get to Palestine From Here?",
  howpublished = "New York Times",
  year =         "2003",
  month =        "March 23",
  note =         "WK 1, 14",
  file = F
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@MISC{tanenhaus2003,
  author =       "Tanenhaus, Sam",
  title =        "The Rise and Fall and Rise of the Domino Theory",
  howpublished = "New York Times",
  year =         "2003",
  month =        "March 23",
  note =         "WK 4",
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@ARTICLE{ray2001,
  AUTHOR =       "Ray, James Lee",
  TITLE =        "Integrating Levels of Analysis in World Politics",
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@ARTICLE{senese1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Senese, Paul D.",
  TITLE =        "Democracy and Maturity: Deciphering Conditional Effects on Levels of Dispute Intensity",
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@INPROCEEDINGS{ray2000,
  AUTHOR =       {Ray, James Lee},
  TITLE =        {``On the Level(s): Does Democracy Correlate with Peace?''},
  BOOKTITLE =    {What Do We Know About War?},
  YEAR =         {2000},
  editor =       {John A. Vasquez},
  pages =        {299-318},
  address =      {Lanham, Maryland},
  publisher =    {Rowman and Littlefield},
}
@ARTICLE{mclaughlingateshegre1999,
  AUTHOR =       "McLaughlin, Sara and Scott Gates and Haavard Hegre",
  TITLE =        "Evolution in Democracy--War Dynamics",
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@ARTICLE{davies2002,
  AUTHOR =       "Davies, Graeme A. M.",
  TITLE =        "Domestic Strife and the Initiation of International Conflicts: A Directed Dyad Analysis, 1950--1982",
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  YEAR =         "2002",
  volume =       "46",
  pages =        "672-692",
  number =       "5",
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  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{dasselreinhardt1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Dassel, Kurt and Eric Reinhardt",
  TITLE =        "Domestic Strife and the Initiation of Violence at Home and Abroad",
  JOURNAL =      "American Journal of Political Science",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  volume =       "43",
  pages =        "56-85",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{mansfieldsnyder2002,
  AUTHOR =       "Mansfield, Edward D. and Jack Snyder",
  TITLE =        "Incomplete Democratization and the Outbreak of Military Disputes",
  JOURNAL =      "International Studies Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "2002",
  volume =       "46",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "529-550",
  month =        "December",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{wardgleditsch1998,
  AUTHOR =       "Ward, Michael D. and Kristian S. Gleditsch",
  TITLE =        "Democratizing for Peace",
  JOURNAL =      "American Political Science Review",
  YEAR =         "1998",
  volume =       "92",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "51-61",
  month =        "March",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{mansfieldsnyder1995,
  AUTHOR =       "Mansfield, Edward D. and Jack Snyder",
  TITLE =        "The Dangers of Democratization",
  JOURNAL =      "International Security",
  YEAR =         "1995",
  volume =       "20",
  pages =        "5-58",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{hermannkegley1996,
  AUTHOR =       "Hermann, Margaret G. and Kegley, Charles W. Jr.",
  TITLE =        "Ballots, A Barrier Against the Use of Bullets and Bombs, Democratization and Military Intervention",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "1996",
  volume =       "40",
  pages =        "436-460",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{kegleyhermann1997,
  AUTHOR =       "Kegley, Charles W. Jr. and Margaret G. Hermann",
  TITLE =        "Putting Military Intervention into the Democratic Peace",
  JOURNAL =      "Comparative Political Studies",
  YEAR =         "1997",
  volume =       "30",
  pages =        "78-107",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{rousseaugelpireiterhuth1996,
  AUTHOR =       "Rousseau, David L. and Christopher Gelpi and Dan Reiter and Paul K. Huth",
  TITLE =        "Assessing the Dyadic Nature of the Democratic Peace, 1918-1988",
  JOURNAL =      "American Political Science Review",
  YEAR =         "1986",
  volume =       "90",
  pages =        "512-533",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{doyle1986,
  AUTHOR =       "Doyle, Michael W.",
  TITLE =        "Liberalism and World Politics",
  JOURNAL =      "American Political Science Review",
  YEAR =         "1986",
  volume =       "80",
  pages =        "1151-1169",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{babst1964,
  AUTHOR =       "Babst, Dean V.",
  TITLE =        "Elected Governments: A Force for Peace",
  JOURNAL =      "The Wisconsin Sociologist",
  YEAR =         "1964",
  volume =       "3",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "9-14",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{remmer1998,
  AUTHOR =       "Remmer, Karen L.",
  TITLE =        "Does Democracy Promote Interstate Cooperation? Lessons from the Mercosur Region",
  JOURNAL =      "International Studies Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "1998",
  volume =       "42",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "25-52",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{leedsdavis1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Leeds, Brett Ashley and David R. Davis",
  TITLE =        "Beneath the Surface: Regime Type and International Interaction, 1953--78",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Peace Research",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  volume =       "36",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "5-21",
  month =        "January",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{pecenybeer2002,
  AUTHOR =       "Peceny, Mark and Caroline Beer",
  TITLE =        "Dictatorial Peace?",
  JOURNAL =      "American Political Science Review",
  YEAR =         "2002",
  volume =       "96",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "15-26",
  month =        "January",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{gledtischhegre1997,
  AUTHOR =       "Gleditsch, Nils Petter and Haavard Hegre",
  TITLE =        "Peace and Democracy: Three Levels of Analysis",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "1997",
  volume =       "41",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "283-310",
  month =        "April",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{mousseau2002,
  AUTHOR =       "Mousseau, Michael",
  TITLE =        "A Limitation to the Zone of Democratic Peace and Cooperation",
  JOURNAL =      "International Interactions",
  YEAR =         "2002",
  volume =       "28",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "137-164",
 file = F
}
@ARTICLE{doyle1995,
  AUTHOR =       "Doyle, Michael",
  TITLE =        "Correspondence: To the Editors",
  JOURNAL =      "International Security",
  YEAR =         "1995",
  volume =       "19",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "180-184",
  month =        "Spring",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{spiro1995,
  AUTHOR =       "Spiro, David",
  TITLE =        "Correspondence: ``And Yet It Squirms''",
  JOURNAL =      "International Security",
  YEAR =         "1995",
  volume =       "19",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "177-180",
  month =        "Spring",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{layne1995,
  AUTHOR =       "Layne, Christopher",
  TITLE =        "Correspondence: Reply to Russett",
  JOURNAL =      "International Security",
  YEAR =         "1995",
  volume =       "19",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "175-177",
  month =        "Spring",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{russett1995,
  AUTHOR =       "Russett, Bruce",
  TITLE =        "Correspondence: ``And Yet it Moves''",
  JOURNAL =      "International Security",
  YEAR =         "1995",
  volume =       "19",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "164-175",
  month =        "Spring",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{oloughlinanselin1996,
  AUTHOR =       "O'Loughlin, John and Luc Anselin",
  TITLE =        "Geo-Economic Competition and Trade Bloc Formulation: United States, German, and Japanese Exports, 1968-1992",
  JOURNAL =      "Economic Geography",
  YEAR =         "1996",
  volume =       "72",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "131-160",
  month =        "April",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{lim1995,
  AUTHOR =       "Lim, Linda Y. C.",
  TITLE =        "Southeast Asia: Success Through International Openness",
  BOOKTITLE =    "Global Change, Regional Response",
  YEAR =         "1995",
  editor =       "Barbara Stallings",
  pages =        "238-271",
  address =      "Cambridge",
  publisher =    "Cambridge University Press",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{fallows1995,
  AUTHOR =       "Fallows, James",
  TITLE =        "Looking at the Sun: The Rise of the New East Asian Economic and Political System",
  PUBLISHER =    "Vintage",
  YEAR =         "1995",
  address =      "New York, New York",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{przeworskilimongi1997,
  AUTHOR =       "Przeworski, Adam and Fernando Limongi",
  TITLE =        "Modernization: Theories and Facts",
  JOURNAL =      "World Politics",
  YEAR =         "1997",
  volume =       "49",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "155-183",
  month =        "January",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{lipset1959,
  AUTHOR =       "Lipset, Seymour Martin",
  TITLE =        "Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy",
  JOURNAL =      "American Political Science Review",
  YEAR =         "1959",
  volume =       "53",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "69-105",
  month =        "March",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{kaderacrescenzishannon2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Kadera, Kelly M. and Mark J. C. Crescenzi and Megan L. Shannon",
  TITLE =        "Democratic Survival, Peace, and War in the International System",
  JOURNAL =      "American Journal of Political Science",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  volume =       "47",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "234-47",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{reiter2001,
  AUTHOR =       "Reiter, Dan",
  TITLE =        "Does Peace Nurture Democracy?",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Politics",
  YEAR =         "2001",
  volume =       "62",
  number =       "3",
  pages =        "935-948",
  month =        "August",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{oloughlinetal1998,
  AUTHOR =       "O'Loughlin, John and Michael D. Ward and Corey L. Lofdahl and Jordin S. Cohen and David S. Brown and
                    David Reilly and Kristian S. Gleditsch and Michael Shin",
  TITLE =        "The Diffusion of Democracy 1946-1994",
  JOURNAL =      "Annals of the Association of American Geographers",
  YEAR =         "1998",
  volume =       "88",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "545-574",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{jamessollenbergwolfson1999,
  AUTHOR =       "James, Patrick and Eric Solberg and Murray Wolfson",
  TITLE =        "An Identified Systemic Model of The Democracy--Peace Nexus",
  JOURNAL =      "Defense and Peace Economics",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  volume =       "10",
  pages =        "1-37",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{thompson1996,
  AUTHOR =       "Thompson, William R.",
  TITLE =        "Democracy and Peace: Putting the Cart Before the Horse?",
  JOURNAL =      "International Organization",
  YEAR =         "1996",
  volume =       "50",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "141-174",
  month =        "Winter",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{joseph1997,
  AUTHOR =       "Joseph, Richard",
  TITLE =        "Democratization in Africa After 1989: Comparative and Theoretical Perspectives",
  JOURNAL =      "Comparative Politics",
  YEAR =         "1997",
  volume =       "29",
  number =       "3",
  pages =        "363-382",
  month =        "April",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{ray1995,
  AUTHOR =       "Ray, James Lee",
  TITLE =        "Global Trends, State-specific Factors and Regime Transitions, 1825-1993",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Peace Research",
  YEAR =         "1995",
  volume =       "32",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "49-63",
  month =        "February",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{crescenzienterline1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Crescenzi, Mark J. C. and Andrew J. Enterline",
  TITLE =        "Ripples from the Waves? A Systemic, Time-Series Analysis of Democracy, Democratization, and Interstate
                    War",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Peace Research",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  volume =       "36",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "75-94",
  month =        "January",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{huntington1991,
  AUTHOR =       "Huntington, Samuel P.",
  TITLE =        "The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth-Century",
  PUBLISHER =    "University of Oklahoma",
  YEAR =         "1991",
  address =      "Norman, Oklahoma",
  file = F
}
@MISC{starr1995,
  author =       "Starr, Harvey",
  title =        "D2: The Diffusion of Democracy Revisited",
  howpublished = "Presented at the International Studies Association Meeting, Chicago, Illinois",
  year =         "1995",
  month =        "February",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{starr1991,
  AUTHOR =       "Starr, Harvey",
  TITLE =        "Democratic Dominoes: Diffusion Approaches the Spread of Democracy in the International System",
  JOURNAL =      "Technological Forecasting and Social Change",
  YEAR =         "1991",
  volume =       "35",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "356-81",
  month =        "June",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{modelskiperry1991,
  AUTHOR =       "Modelski, George and Gardner Perry",
  TITLE =        "Democratization in Long Perspective",
  JOURNAL =      "Technological Forecasting and Social Change",
  YEAR =         "1991",
  volume =       "39",
  pages =        "23-34",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{allisonbeschel1992,
  AUTHOR =       "Allison, Graham T. Jr. and Robert P. Beschel Jr.",
  TITLE =        "Can the United States Promote Democracy?",
  JOURNAL =      "Political Science Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "1992",
  volume =       "107",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "81-98",
  month =        "Spring",
  file = F
}
@MISC{miller2003,
  author =       "Miller, Greg",
  title =        "Democracy Domino Theory 'Not Credible' A State Department report
                  disputes Bush's claim that ousting Hussein will spur reforms in the Mideast,
                  intelligence officials say.",
  howpublished = "Los Angeles Times",
  year =         "2003",
  month =        "March 14",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{peceny1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Peceny, Mark",
  TITLE =        "Forcing Them to Be Free",
  JOURNAL =      "Political Resaerch Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  volume =       "52",
  number =       "3",
  pages =        "549-582",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{meernik1996,
  AUTHOR =       "Meernik, James",
  TITLE =        "United States Military Intervention and the Promotion of Democracy",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Peace Research",
  YEAR =         "1996",
  volume =       "33",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "391-402",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{russettoneal2001,
  AUTHOR =       "Russett, Bruce, and John Oneal ",
  TITLE =        "Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations",
  PUBLISHER =    "W.W. Norton",
  YEAR =         "2001",
  address =      "New York",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{organski1958,
  AUTHOR =       "Organski, A. F. K. ",
  TITLE =        "World Politics",
  PUBLISHER =    "Knopf",
  YEAR =         "1958",
  address =      "New York",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{starrmost1976,
  AUTHOR =       "Starr, H. and B. A. Most ",
  TITLE =        "The Substance and Study of Borders in International Relations Research",
  JOURNAL =      "International Studies Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "1976",
  volume =       "20",
  number =       "",
  pages =        "581-620",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{stegenga1968,
  AUTHOR =       "Stegenga, J. A. ",
  TITLE =        "The United Nations Force in Cyprus",
  PUBLISHER =    "Ohio State University Press",
  YEAR =         "1968",
  address =      "Columbus, OH",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{stoessinger1970,
  AUTHOR =       "Stoessinger, J. G. ",
  TITLE =        "The United Nations and the Superpowers",
  PUBLISHER =    "Random House",
  YEAR =         "1970",
  address =      "New York",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{wainhousebohannonknottsimons1973,
  AUTHOR =       "Wainhouse, D. W. and F. P. Bohannon and J. E. Knott and A. P. Simons",
  TITLE =        "International Peacekeeping at the Crossroads",
  PUBLISHER =    "Johns Hopkins University Press",
  YEAR =         "1973",
  address =      "Baltimore",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{bechoefferdriergerigturkel1966,
  AUTHOR =       "B. Bechhoeffer and J. C. Drier and B. Gerig and H. R. Turkel",
  TITLE =        "International Peace Observation: A History and Forecast",
  PUBLISHER =    "Johns Hopkins University Press",
  YEAR =         "1966",
  address =      "Baltimore",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{weinberger1983,
  AUTHOR =       "Weinberger, N. J.",
  TITLE =        "Peacekeeping Options in Lebanon",
  JOURNAL =      "Middle East Journal",
  YEAR =         "1983",
  volume =       "37",
  number =       "",
  pages =        "341-369",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{williams1981,
  AUTHOR =       "Williams, R. M. ",
  TITLE =        "Resolving and Restricting International Conflicts",
  JOURNAL =      "Armed Forces and Society",
  YEAR =         "1981",
  volume =       "7",
  number =       "",
  pages =        "367-382",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{wiseman1983,
  AUTHOR =       "Wiseman, H.",
  TITLE =        "Peacekeeping: Appraisals and Proposals",
  PUBLISHER =    "International Peace Academy and Pergamon Press",
  YEAR =         "1983",
  address =      "New York",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{wittman1979,
  AUTHOR =       "Wittman, D. ",
  TITLE =        "How a War Ends",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "1979",
  volume =       "23",
  number =       "",
  pages =        "743-763",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{wright1965,
  AUTHOR =       "Wright, Q. ",
  TITLE =        "A Study of War",
  PUBLISHER =    "University of Chicago Press",
  YEAR =         "1965",
  address =      "Chicago",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{singersmall1972,
  AUTHOR =       "Small, M. and J. D. Singer",
  TITLE =        "Resort to Arms",
  PUBLISHER =    "Sage",
  YEAR =         "1980",
  address =      "Beverly Hills",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{singersmall1972,
  AUTHOR =       "Singer, J. D. and M. Small",
  TITLE =        "Wages of War",
  PUBLISHER =    "Wiley",
  YEAR =         "1972",
  address =      "New York",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{russell1968,
  AUTHOR =       "Russell, R. ",
  TITLE =        "The United Nations and U. S. Security Policy",
  PUBLISHER =    "Brookings",
  YEAR =         "1968",
  address =      "Washington, DC",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{rosner1963,
  AUTHOR =       "Rosner, G. ",
  TITLE =        "The United Nations Emergency Force",
  PUBLISHER =    "Columbia University Press",
  YEAR =         "1963",
  address =      "New York",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{rikhyeharbottleegge1974,
  AUTHOR =       "Rikhye, I. J. and M. Harbottle and B. Egge ",
  TITLE =        "he Thin Blue Line: International Peacekeeping and its Future",
  PUBLISHER =    "Yale University",
  YEAR =         "1974",
  address =      "New Haven, CT",
  file = F
}
@MISC{harvey1977,
  author =       "Harvey, P. C.",
  title =        "The Operational Effectiveness of United Nations Peacekeeping Forces, with
                    Particular Reference to the United Nations Emergency Force II, October 1973 - September 1975",
  howpublished = "University of Keele: Defence Fellowship Thesis",
  year =         "1977",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{richardson1960b,
  AUTHOR =       "Richardson, L. F",
  TITLE =        "Arms and Insecurity",
  PUBLISHER =    "Quadrangle",
  YEAR =         "1960",
  address =      "Chicago, IL",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{richardson1960a,
  AUTHOR =       "Richardson, L. F",
  TITLE =        "Statistics of Deadly Quarrels",
  PUBLISHER =    "Quadrangle",
  YEAR =         "1960",
  address =      "Chicago, IL",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{reford1972,
  AUTHOR =       "Reford, R. W. ",
  TITLE =        "UNIPOM: Success of a Mission",
  JOURNAL =      "International Journal",
  YEAR =         "1972",
  volume =       "27:405-423",
  number =       "",
  pages =        "405-423",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{midlarsky1980,
  AUTHOR =       "Midlarsky, M. I. ",
  TITLE =        "On War: Political Violence in the International System",
  PUBLISHER =    "Free Press",
  YEAR =         "1980",
  address =      "New York",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{lefever1965,
  AUTHOR =       "Lefever, E. ",
  TITLE =        "Crisis in the Congo: A UN Force in Action",
  PUBLISHER =    "Brookings",
  YEAR =         "1965",
  address =      "Washington, DC",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{lefever1968,
  AUTHOR =       "Lefever, E. ",
  TITLE =        "he Limitations of UN Intervention in the Third World",
  JOURNAL =      "Review of Politics",
  YEAR =         "1965",
  volume =       "30",
  number =       "",
  pages =        "3-18",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{klinberg1966,
  AUTHOR =       "Klingberg, F. L. ",
  TITLE =        "redicting the Termination of War: Battle Casualties and Population Losses",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "1966",
  volume =       "10",
  number =       "",
  pages =        "129-171",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{james1969,
  AUTHOR =       "James, A.",
  TITLE =        "The Politics of Peacekeeping",
  PUBLISHER =    "Praeger",
  YEAR =         "1969",
  address =      "New York",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{pelcovitskramer1976,
  AUTHOR =       "Pelcovits, N. A. and Kevin Kramer",
  TITLE =        "Local Conflict and UN Peacekeeping: The Uses of Computerized Data",
  JOURNAL =      "International Studies Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "1976",
  volume =       "20",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "533-552",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{regan1996,
  AUTHOR =       "Regan, Patrick",
  TITLE =        "Conditions for Successful Third-Party Intervention in Intrastate Conflicts",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "1996",
  volume =       "40",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "336-359",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{masonfett1996,
  AUTHOR =       "Mason, T. David and Patrick Fett",
  TITLE =        "How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "1996",
  volume =       "40",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "546-568",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{diehl1988,
  AUTHOR =       "Diehl, Paul F.",
  TITLE =        "Peacekeeping Operations and the Quest for Peace",
  JOURNAL =      "Political Science Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "1988",
  volume =       "103",
  number =       "3",
  pages =        "485-507",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{harbottle1970,
  AUTHOR =       "Harbottle, M.",
  TITLE =        "The Impartial Soldier",
  PUBLISHER =    "Oxford University Press",
  YEAR =         "1970",
  address =      "",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{haasbutterworthnye1972,
  AUTHOR =       "Haas, E. B. and R. L. Butterworth and J. S. Nye",
  TITLE =        "Conflict Management by International Organizations",
  PUBLISHER =    "General Learning Corporation",
  YEAR =         "1972",
  address =      "Morristown, NJ",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{goldman1982,
  AUTHOR =       "Goldman, R. M.",
  TITLE =        "Arms Control and Peacekeeping",
  PUBLISHER =    "Random House",
  YEAR =         "1982",
  address =      "New York",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{garnham1976,
  AUTHOR =       "Garnham, D.",
  TITLE =        "Power Parity and Lethal International Violence, 1969-73",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "1976",
  volume =       "20",
  number =       "",
  pages =        "",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{forsythe1977,
  AUTHOR =       "Forsythe, D. P. ",
  TITLE =        "United Nations Peacemaking",
  JOURNAL =      "Proceedings of the Academy of Political Science",
  YEAR =         "1977",
  volume =       "32",
  number =       "",
  pages =        "206-220",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{finger1977,
  AUTHOR =       "Finger, S. M. ",
  TITLE =        "The Maintenance of Peace",
  JOURNAL =      "Proceedings of the Academy of Political Science",
  YEAR =         "1977",
  volume =       "32",
  number =       "",
  pages =        "195-205",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{ferris1973,
  AUTHOR =       "Ferris, W.",
  TITLE =        "The Power Capabilities of Nation States",
  PUBLISHER =    "D. C. Heath",
  YEAR =         "1973",
  address =      "Lexington, MA",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{fabian1971,
  AUTHOR =       "Fabian, L.",
  TITLE =        "Soldiers Without Enemies",
  PUBLISHER =    "Brookings Institution",
  YEAR =         "1971",
  address =      "Washtington, DC",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{coufoudakis1976,
  AUTHOR =       "Coufoudakis, Van",
  TITLE =        "United Nations Peacekeeping and Peacemaking and the Cyprus Question",
  JOURNAL =      "Western Political Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "1976",
  volume =       "29",
  number =       "",
  pages =        "457-473",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{choucrinorth1975,
  AUTHOR =       "Choucri, N. and R. North",
  TITLE =        "Nations in Conflict: National Growth and International Violence",
  PUBLISHER =    "Freeman",
  YEAR =         "1975",
  address =      "San Francisco, CA",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{claude1964,
  AUTHOR =       "Claud, I.",
  TITLE =        "Swords into Plowshares",
  PUBLISHER =    "Random House",
  YEAR =         "1964",
  address =      "New York",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{claude1962,
  AUTHOR =       "Claud, I.",
  TITLE =        "Power and International Relations",
  PUBLISHER =    "Random House",
  YEAR =         "1962",
  address =      "New York",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{butterworth1976,
  AUTHOR =       "Butterworth, R. L. ",
  TITLE =        "Managing Interstate Conflict.
1945-1974",
  PUBLISHER =    "University Center for International Studies, University of Pittsburgh",
  YEAR =         "1976",
  address =      "Pittsburgh, PA",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{butterworth1978,
  AUTHOR =       "Butterworth, R. L. ",
  TITLE =        "Moderation from Management: International Organizations and Peace",
  PUBLISHER =    "University Center for International Studies, University of Pittsburgh",
  YEAR =         "1978",
  address =      "Pittsburgh, PA",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{buenodemesquita1981,
  AUTHOR =       "Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce",
  TITLE =        "The War Trap",
  PUBLISHER =    "Yake University",
  YEAR =         "1981",
  address =      "New Haven, CT",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{bremer1982,
  AUTHOR =       "Bremer, S. A. ",
  TITLE =        "The Contagiousness of Coercion: the Spread of Serious International Disputes, 1900-1976",
  JOURNAL =      "International Interactions",
  YEAR =         "1982",
  volume =       "22",
  number =       "",
  pages =        "29-55",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{bloomfieldleiss1969,
  AUTHOR =       "Bloomfield, L. P. and A. C. Leiss",
  TITLE =        "Controlling Small Wars:A Strategy for the 1970s",
  PUBLISHER =    "Alfred A. Knopf",
  YEAR =         "1969",
  address =      "New York",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{beer1979,
  AUTHOR =       "Beer, F. A.",
  TITLE =        "The Epidemiology of Peace and War",
  JOURNAL =      "International Studies Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "1979",
  volume =       "23",
  number =       "",
  pages =        "45-86",
  file = F
}
@MISC{economist080300,
  author =       "Economist, The",
  title =        "The UN's Missions Impossible",
  year =         "2000",
  month =        "August 3",
  file = F
}
@MISC{buhauggateslujala2002,
  author =       "Buhaug, Halvard and Scott Gates and Paivi Lujala",
  title =        "Lootable Natural Resources and the Duration of Armed Civil Conflict, 1946-2000",
  howpublished = "Paper presented at the annual meetings of the Peace Science Society (International), Tuscon, AZ",
  year =         "2002",
  file = F
}
@MISC{collierhoefflersoderbom1999,
  author =       "Collier, Paul and Anke Hoeffler and Mans Soderbom",
  title =        "On the Duration of Civil War",
  howpublished = "Paper prepared for the World Bank, Development Research Group/University of California, Irvine, Center for Global Peace and Conflict Studies, Workshop on Civil Wars and Post Conflict Transitions",
  year =         "1999",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{vanhanen1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Vanhanen, Tatu",
  TITLE =        "Domestic Ethnic Conflict and Ethnic Nepotism: A Comparative Analysis",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Peace Research",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  volume =       "36",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "55-73",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{achensnidal1989,
  AUTHOR =       "Achen, Christopher H. and Duncan Snidal",
  TITLE =        "Rational Deterrence Theory and Comparative Case Studies",
  JOURNAL =      "World Politics",
  YEAR =         "1989",
  volume =       "41",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "143-69",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{kingkeohaneverba1994,
  AUTHOR =       "King, Gary and Robert O. Keohane and Sidney Verba",
  TITLE =        "Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research",
  PUBLISHER =    "Princeton",
  YEAR =         "1994",
  address =      "Princeton, NJ",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{mack2002,
  AUTHOR =       "Mack, Andrew",
  TITLE =        "Civil War: Academic Research and the Policy Community",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Peace Research",
  YEAR =         "2002",
  volume =       "39",
  number =       "5",
  pages =        "515-525",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{clapham1998,
  AUTHOR =       "Clapham, Christopher",
  TITLE =        "Rwanda: The Perils of Peacemaking",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Peace Research",
  YEAR =         "1998",
  volume =       "35",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "193-210",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{gibbs2001,
  AUTHOR =       "Gibbs, David N. ",
  TITLE =        "The United Nations, International Peacekeeeping, and the Question of 'Impartiality': Revisiting the Congo Operation of 1960",
  JOURNAL =      "The Journal of Modern African Studies",
  YEAR =         "2001",
  volume =       "38",
  number =       "3",
  pages =        "359-382",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{hartzellhodddierotchild2001,
  AUTHOR =       "Hartzell, Caroline and Matthew Hoddie and Donald Rothchild",
  TITLE =        "Stabilizing the Peace After Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables",
  JOURNAL =      "International Organization",
  YEAR =         "2001",
  volume =       "55",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "183-208",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{luttwak1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Luttwak, Edward",
  TITLE =        "Give War a Chance",
  JOURNAL =      "Foreign Affairs",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  volume =       "78",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "36-44",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{annan1998,
  AUTHOR =       "Annan, Kofi A.",
  TITLE =        "Challenges of the New Peacekeeping",
  BOOKTITLE =    "Peacemaking and Peacekeeping for the New Century",
  YEAR =         "1998",
  editor =       "Olara A. Otunnu and Michael W. Doyle",
  address =      "New York, NY",
  publisher =    "Rowman and Littlefield",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{doyle1998,
  AUTHOR =       "Doyle, Michael W.",
  TITLE =        "Discovering the Limits and Potential of Peacekeeping",
  BOOKTITLE =    "Peacemaking and Peacekeeping for the New Century",
  YEAR =         "1998",
  editor =       "Olara A. Otunnu and Michael W. Doyle",
  address =      "New York, NY",
  publisher =    "Rowman and Littlefield",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{otunnu1998,
  AUTHOR =       "Otunnu, Olara A.",
  TITLE =        "The Peace-and-Security Agenda of the United Nations: From a Crossroads into the New Century ",
  BOOKTITLE =    "Peacemaking and Peacekeeping for the New Century",
  YEAR =         "1998",
  editor =       "Olara A. Otunnu and Michael W. Doyle",
  address =      "New York, NY",
  publisher =    "Rowman and Littlefield",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{franck1998,
  AUTHOR =       "Franck, Thomas M.",
  TITLE =        "A Holistic Approach to Building Peace",
  BOOKTITLE =    "Peacemaking and Peacekeeping for the New Century",
  YEAR =         "1998",
  editor =       "Olara A. Otunnu and Michael W. Doyle",
  address =      "New York, NY",
  publisher =    "Rowman and Littlefield",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{fleitz2002,
  AUTHOR =       "Fleitz, Frederick H.",
  TITLE =        "Peacekeeping Fiascoes of the 1990s: Causes, Solutions, and U.S. Interests",
  PUBLISHER =    "Praeger",
  YEAR =         "2002",
  address =      "Wesport, CT",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{regan2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Regan, Patrick M.",
  TITLE =        "Civil Wars and Foreign Powers: Outside Intervention in Intrastate Conflict",
  PUBLISHER =    "Michigan",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  address =      "Ann Arbor,MI",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{gujarati1995,
  AUTHOR =       "Gujarati, Damodar N.",
  TITLE =        "Basic Econometrics",
  PUBLISHER =    "McGraw Hill",
  YEAR =         "1995",
  address =      "New York, NY",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{zartman1993,
  AUTHOR =       "Zartman, William I.",
  TITLE =        "The Unfinished Agenda: Negotiating Internal Conflicts",
  BOOKTITLE =    "Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End",
  YEAR =         "1993",
  editor =       "Roy Licklider",
  address =      "New York, NY",
  publisher =    "New York University Press",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{zartman1985,
  AUTHOR =       "Zartman, William I.",
  TITLE =        "Ripe for Resolution: Conflict and Intervention in Africa",
  PUBLISHER =    "Oxford University Press",
  YEAR =         "1985",
  address =      "New York, NY",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{pillar1983,
  AUTHOR =       "Pillar, Paul",
  TITLE =        "Negotiating Peace: War Termination as a Bargaining Process",
  PUBLISHER =    "Princeton",
  YEAR =         "1983",
  address =      "Princeton, NJ",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{licklider1993,
  AUTHOR =       "Licklider, Roy",
  TITLE =        "How Civil Wars End: Questions and Methods",
  BOOKTITLE =    "Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End",
  YEAR =         "1993",
  editor =       "Roy Licklider",
  address =      "New York, NY",
  publisher =    "New York University Press",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{doylesambanis2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Doyle, Michael W. and Nicholas Sambanis",
  TITLE =        "International Peacekeeping: A Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis",
  JOURNAL =      "American Political Science Review",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  volume =       "94",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "779-801",
  file = F
}
@MISC{doylesambanis_b2000,
  author =       "Doyle, Michael W. and Nicholas Sambanis",
  title =        "Data Notes for `International Peacebuilding: A Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis'",
  howpublished = "Electronic File, The World Bank",
  year =         "2000",
  month =        "November 6",
  file = F
}
@MISC{annan1999,
  author =       "Annan, Kofi",
  title =        "The Future of United Nations Peacekeeping",
  howpublished = "Address following acceptance of the Jit Trainor Award for Distinction in the Conduct of Diplomacy, Georgetown University, Washington, DC",
  year =         "1999",
  month =        "23 February",
  file = F
}
@TECHREPORT{boutrosghali1992,
  AUTHOR =       "Boutros-Ghali, Boutros",
  TITLE =        "An Agenda for Peace: Preventive Diplomacy, Peacemaking and Peace-keeping",
  INSTITUTION =  "United Nations General Assembly",
  YEAR =         "1992",
  number =       "A/47/277-S/24111",
  month =        "17 June",
  file = F
}
@TECHREPORT{carlsson1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Carlsson, Ingvar",
  TITLE =        "Report of the Independent Inquiry in the Actions of the United Nations During the 1994 Genocide in Rwanda",
  INSTITUTION =  "United Nations General Assembly",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  number =       "S/1999/1257",
  month =        "15 December",
  file = F
}
@MISC{enterlinebalchlindsay2002,
  author =       "Enterline, Andrew J. and Dylan Balch-Lindsay",
  title =        "By Sword or by Signature? A Competing Risks Approach to Third Party Intervention and Civil War Outcomes, 1816-1997",
  howpublished = "Typescript, Department of Political Science, University of North Texas",
  year =         "2002",
  file = F
}
@MISC{demars1995,
  author =       "DeMars, William",
  title =        "Does International Humanitarian Action Prolong or Resolve Civil Wars?",
  howpublished = "Paper Presented at the International Studies Association, Chicago, Illinois",
  year =         "1995",
  file = F
}
@MISC{krain1999,
  author =       "Krain, Matthew",
  title =        "International Intervention and the Severity of Genocides and Politicides",
  howpublished = "Paper Presented at the American Poltical Science Association, Atlanta, Georgia",
  year =         "1999",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{rogers1996,
  AUTHOR =       "Rogers, Elizabeth S.",
  TITLE =        "Economic Sanctions and Internal Conflict",
  BOOKTITLE =    "The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict",
  YEAR =         "1996",
  editor =       "Michael E. Brown",
  address =      "Cambridge, MA",
  publisher =    "The MIT Press",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{stedman1996,
  AUTHOR =       "Stedman, Stephen John",
  TITLE =        "Negotiation and Mediation in Internal Conflict",
  BOOKTITLE =    "The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict",
  YEAR =         "1996",
  editor =       "Michael E. Brown",
  address =      "Cambridge, MA",
  publisher =    "The MIT Press",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{chernick1996,
  AUTHOR =       "Chernick, Mark W.",
  TITLE =        "Peacemaking and Violence in Latin America",
  BOOKTITLE =    "The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict",
  YEAR =         "1996",
  editor =       "Michael E. Brown",
  address =      "Cambridge, MA",
  publisher =    "The MIT Press",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{dejongeoudraat1996,
  AUTHOR =       "de Jonge Oudraat, Chantal",
  TITLE =        "The United Nations and Internal Conflict",
  BOOKTITLE =    "The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict",
  YEAR =         "1996",
  editor =       "Michael E. Brown",
  address =      "Cambridge, MA",
  publisher =    "The MIT Press",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{zacarias1996,
  AUTHOR =       "Zacarias, Agostino",
  TITLE =        "The United Nations and International Peacekeeping",
  PUBLISHER =    "I. B. Taurus Publishers",
  YEAR =         "1996",
  address =      "London",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{fetherston1994,
  AUTHOR =       "Fetherston, A.B.",
  TITLE =        "Towards a Theory of United Nations Peacekeeping",
  PUBLISHER =    "St. Martin's",
  YEAR =         "1994",
  address =      "New York, NY",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{fetherston2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Fetherston, A.B.",
  TITLE =        "Peacekeeping, Conflict Resolution and Peacebuilding: A Reconsideration of Theoretical Frameworks",
  BOOKTITLE =    "Peacekeeping and Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  editor =       "Tom Woodhouse and Oliver Ramsbotham",
  address =      "London",
  publisher =    "Frank Cass",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{woodhouseramsbotham2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Woodhouse, Tom",
  TITLE =        "Conflict Resolution and Peacekeeping: Critiques and Responses",
  BOOKTITLE =    "Peacekeeping and Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  editor =       "Tom Woodhouse and Oliver Ramsbotham",
  address =      "London",
  publisher =    "Frank Cass",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{mockaitis1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Mockaitis, Thomas R.",
  TITLE =        "Peace Operations and Intrastate Conflict: The Sword or the Olive Branch?",
  PUBLISHER =    "Praeger",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  address =      "Westport, CT",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{jett1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Jett, Dennis C.",
  TITLE =        "Why Peacekeeping Fails",
  PUBLISHER =    "Palgrave",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  address =      "New York",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{hillmalik1996,
  AUTHOR =       "Hill, Stephen M. and Shahin P. Malik",
  TITLE =        "Peacekeeping and the United Nations",
  PUBLISHER =    "Dartmouth Publishing Company",
  YEAR =         "1996",
  address =      "Aldershot, England",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{hillen2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Hillen, John",
  TITLE =        "Blue Helmets: The Strategy of UN Military Operations",
  PUBLISHER =    "Brassey's",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  edition =      "Second",
  address =      "London",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{bluehelmets1996,
  AUTHOR =       "United Nations",
  TITLE  =       "The Blue Helmets. A Review of United Nations Peace-Keeping",
  PUBLISHER =    "United Nations Department of Public Information",
  YEAR =         "1996",
  edition =      "Third",
  address =      "New York, NY",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{allan1996,
  AUTHOR =       "Allan, James H.",
  TITLE =        "Peacekeeping: Outspoken Observations by a Field Officer",
  PUBLISHER =    "Praeger",
  YEAR =         "1996",
  address =      "Wesport, CT",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{weissforsythecoate1997,
  AUTHOR =       "Weiss, Thomas G. and David P. Forsythe and Roger A. Coate",
  TITLE =        "The United Nations and Changing World Politics",
  PUBLISHER =    "Westview Press",
  YEAR =         "1997",
  edition =      "Second",
  address =      "Boulder, CO",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{durch1993,
  AUTHOR =       "Durch, William J.",
  TITLE =        "Introduction",
  BOOKTITLE =    "The Evolution of UN Peacekeeping: Case Studies and Comparative Analysis",
  YEAR =         "1993",
  editor =       "William J. Durch",
  address =      "New York, NY",
  publisher =    "St. Martin's Press",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{coate1994,
  AUTHOR =       "Coate, Roger A.",
  TITLE =        "The Future of the United Nations",
  BOOKTITLE =    "U.S. Policy and the Future of the United Nations",
  YEAR =         "1994",
  editor =       "Coate, Roger A.",
  address =      "New York, NY",
  publisher =    "Twentieth Century Fund",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{walter2002,
  AUTHOR =       "Walter, Barbara F.",
  TITLE =        "Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars",
  PUBLISHER =    "Princeton",
  YEAR =         "2002",
  address =      "Princeton, NJ",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{durch1996,
  AUTHOR =       "Durch, William J.",
  TITLE =        "Keeping the Peace: Politics and Lessons of the 1990s",
  BOOKTITLE =    "UN Peacekeeping, American Politics, and the Uncivil Wars of the 1990s",
  YEAR =         "1996",
  editor =       "William J. Durch",
  address =      "New York, NY",
  publisher =    "St. Martin's Press",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{bercovithjackson1997,
  AUTHOR =       "Bercovitch, Jacob and Robert Jackson",
  TITLE =        "International Conflict: A Chronological Encyclopedia of Conflicts and their Management, 1945-1995",
  PUBLISHER =    "Congression Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "1997",
  address =      "Washington, DC",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{clodfelter2002,
  AUTHOR =       "Clodfelter, Michael",
  TITLE =        "Warfare and Armed Conflicts: A Statistical Reference to Casualty and Other Figures, 1500-2000",
  PUBLISHER =    "McFarland",
  YEAR =         "2002",
  address =      "Jefferson, North Carolina",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{singersmall1994,
  AUTHOR =       "Singer,J. David and Melvin Small",
  TITLE =        "Correlates of War Project: International and Civil War Data",
  PUBLISHER =    "Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research",
  YEAR =         "1994",
  address =      "Ann Arbor, Michigan",
  file = F
}
@MISC{elbadawisambanis2000,
  author =       "Elbadawi,Ibrahim and Nicholas Sambanis",
  title =        "External Interventions and the Duration of Civil Wars",
  howpublished = "Paper Presented at the Conference on The Economics and Politics of Civil Conflicts, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ",
  year =         "2000",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{regan2002,
  AUTHOR =       "Regan, Patrick M.",
  TITLE =        "Third Party Interventions and the Duration of Intrastate Conflicts",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "2002",
  volume =       "46",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "55-73",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{balchlindsayenterline2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Balch-Lindsay, Dylan  and Andrew J. Enterline",
  TITLE =        "Killing Time: The World Politics of Civil War Duration, 1820-1992",
  JOURNAL =      "International Studies Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  volume =       "44",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "615-642",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{boxsteffensmeierjones1997,
  AUTHOR =       "Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M.  and Bradford S. Jones",
  TITLE =        "Time is of the Essence: Event History Models in the Political Science",
  JOURNAL =      "American Journal of Political Science",
  YEAR =         "1997",
  volume =       "41",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "1414-61",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{allison1984,
  AUTHOR =       "Allison, Pual D.",
  TITLE =        "Event History Analysis: Regression for Longitudinal Data",
  PUBLISHER =    "Sage",
  YEAR =         "1984",
  address =      "Newbury Park, CA",
  file = F
}
@TECHREPORT{brahimi2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Brahimi, Lakhdar",
  TITLE =        "Report of the Panel on United Nations Peace Operations",
  INSTITUTION =  "United Nations General Assembly",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  number =       "A/55/305-/2000/809",
  month =        "21 August",
  file = F
}
@UNPUBLISHED{sambanis2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Sambanis, Nicholas",
  TITLE =        "Preventing Violent Civil Conflict: The Scope and Limits of Government Action",
  NOTE =         "World Development Report 2003: Dynamic Development in a Sustainable World",
  year =         "2003",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{diehl1993,
  AUTHOR =       "Diehl, Paul F.",
  TITLE =        "International Peacekeeping",
  PUBLISHER =    "Johns Hopkins University Press",
  YEAR =         "1993",
  address =      "Baltimore, MD",
  file = F
}
@MISC{usip2001,
  author =       "United States Institute of Peace,",
  title =        "Special Report: Peacekeeping in Africa",
  year =         "2001",
  month =        "February",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{coatepuchala1990,
  AUTHOR =       "Coate, Roger A. and Donald J. Puchala",
  TITLE =        "Global Policies and the United Nations System: A Current Assessment",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Peace Research",
  YEAR =         "1990",
  volume =       "27",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "127-140",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{carmentjames1998  ,
  AUTHOR =       "Carment, David  and Patrick James",
  TITLE =        "The United Nations at 50: Managing Ethnic Crises--Past and Present",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Peace Research",
  YEAR =         "1998",
  volume =       "35",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "61-82",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{diehlreifschneiderhensel1996,
  AUTHOR =       "Diehl, Paul and Jennifer Reifschneider and Paul R. Hensel",
  TITLE =        "United Nations Intervention and Recurring Conflict",
  JOURNAL =      "International Organization",
  YEAR =         "1996",
  volume =       "50",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "683-700",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{stata8,
  AUTHOR =       "StataCorp",
  TITLE =        "Stata Statistical Software: Release 8.2",
  PUBLISHER =    "Stata Corporation",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  address =      "College Station",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{stata8,
  AUTHOR =       "StataCorp",
  TITLE =        "Stata Statistical Software: Release 8.2",
  PUBLISHER =    "Stata Corporation",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  address =      "College Station",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{stata7,
  AUTHOR =       "StataCorp",
  TITLE =        "Stata Statistical Software: Release 7.0",
  PUBLISHER =    "Stata Corporation",
  YEAR =         "2001",
  address =      "College Station",
  file = F
}
@MISC{kingtomzwittenberg2001,
  author =       "Tomz, Michael and Jason Wittenberg and Gary King",
  title =        "CLARIFY: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results",
  year =         "2001",
  month =        "June",
  note =         "Version 2.0",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{sarkees2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Sarkees, Meredith",
  TITLE =        "The Correlates of War Data on War: An Update to 1997",
  JOURNAL =      "Conflict Management and Peace Science",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  volume =       "18",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "123-144",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{kingtomzwittenberg2000,
  AUTHOR =       "King, Gary and Michael Tomz and Jason Wittenberg",
  TITLE =        "Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation",
  JOURNAL =      "American Journal of Political Science",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  volume =       "44",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "341-355",
  month =        "April",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{menard1995,
  AUTHOR =       "Menard, Scott",
  TITLE =        "Applied Logistic Regression",
  PUBLISHER =    "Sage",
  YEAR =         "1995",
  number =       "101",
  series =       "Sage University Paper-07",
  address =      "Thousand Oaks",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{liao1994,
  AUTHOR =       "Liao, Tim Futing",
  TITLE =        "Interpreting Probability Models: Logit, Probit, and Other Generalized Linear Models",
  PUBLISHER =    "Sage",
  YEAR =         "1994",
  number =       "101",
  series =       "Sage University Paper-07",
  address =      "Thousand Oaks",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{bennettstam2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Bennett, D. Scott and Allan Stam",
  TITLE =        "EUGene: A Conceptual Manual",
  JOURNAL =      "International Interactions",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  volume =       "26",
  pages =        "179-204",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{smallsinger1982,
  AUTHOR =       "Small, Melvin and J. David Singer",
  TITLE =        "Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816-1980",
  PUBLISHER =    "Sage",
  YEAR =         "1982",
  address =      "Beverly Hills, California",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{leng1993,
  AUTHOR =       "Leng, Russell J. ",
  TITLE =        "Interstate Crisis Behavior, 1816-1980: Realism Versus Reciprocity",
  PUBLISHER =    "Cambridge University Press",
  YEAR =         "1993",
  address =      "New York",
  file = F
}
@MISC{senesevasquez2001,
  author =       "Senese, Paul D. and John A. Vasquez",
  title =        "Territorial Disputes, Politically Relevant Alliances, and the Probability of War: Controlling for Major State Status and Historical Era",
  howpublished = "American Political Science Association, San Francisco",
  year =         "2001",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{rothchildlake1998,
  AUTHOR =       "Rothchild, Donald and David A. Lake",
  TITLE =        "Containing Fear: The Management of Transnational Ethnic Conflict",
  BOOKTITLE =    "The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion, and Escalation",
  YEAR =         "1998",
  editor =       "David A. Lake and Donald Rothchild",
  pages =        "203-226",
  address =      "Princeton, NJ",
  publisher =    "Princeton University Press",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{fearon1998,
  AUTHOR =       "Fearon, James D.",
  TITLE =        "Commitment Problems and the Spread of Ethnic Conflict",
  BOOKTITLE =    "The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion, and Escalation",
  YEAR =         "1998",
  editor =       "David A. Lake and Donald Rothchild",
  pages =        "107-126",
  address =      "Princeton, NJ",
  publisher =    "Princeton University Press",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{huth1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Huth, Paul K.",
  TITLE =        "Enduring Rivalries and Territorial Disputes, 1950-1990",
  BOOKTITLE =    "A Roadmap to War: Territorial Dimensions of International Conflict",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  editor =       "Paul F. Diehl",
  pages =        "37-72",
  address =      "Nashville",
  publisher =    "Vanderbilt University",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{hensel1999b,
  AUTHOR =       "Hensel, Paul R.",
  TITLE =        "Charting a Course to Conflict: Territorial Issues and Interstate Conflict, 1816-1992",
  BOOKTITLE =    "A Roadmap to War: Territorial Dimensions of International Conflict",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  editor =       "Paul F. Diehl",
  pages =        "115-46",
  address =      "Nashville",
  publisher =    "Vanderbilt University",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{senese1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Senese, Paul D.",
  TITLE =        "Geographic Proximity and Issue Salience: Their Effects on the Escalation of Militarized Interstate Conflict",
  BOOKTITLE =    "A Roadmap to War: Territorial Dimensions of International Conflict",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  editor =       "Paul F. Diehl",
  pages =        "147-80",
  address =      "Nashville",
  publisher =    "Vanderbilt University",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{vasquez1987,
  AUTHOR =       "Vasquez, John A. ",
  TITLE =        "The Steps to War: Toward a Scientific Explanation of the Correlates of War Findings",
  JOURNAL =      "World Politics",
  YEAR =         "1987",
  volume =       "40",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "108-45",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{vasquezhenehan2001,
  AUTHOR =       "Vasquez, John and Marie T. Henehan",
  TITLE =        "Territorial Disputes and the Probability of War, 1816-1992",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Peace Research",
  YEAR =         "2001",
  volume =       "38",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "123-38",
  file = F
}
@UNPUBLISHED{vasquezgibler2001,
  AUTHOR =       "Vasquez, John and Douglas Gibler",
  TITLE =        "The Steps to War in Asia, 1931-45",
  NOTE =         "Department of Political Science, Vanderbilt University",
  year =         "2001",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{kingdon1984,
  AUTHOR =       "Kingdon, John W. ",
  TITLE =        "Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies",
  PUBLISHER =    "Little, Brown",
  YEAR =         "1984",
  address =      "Boston",
  edition =      "2nd",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{eldredgegould1972,
  AUTHOR =       "Eldredge, Niles and Stephen J. Gould",
  TITLE =        "Punctuated Equilibria: An Alternative to Phyletic Gradualism",
  BOOKTITLE =    "Models in Paleobiology",
  YEAR =         "1972",
  editor =       "T. Schopf and J. Thomas",
  address =      "San Francisco",
  publisher =    "Freeman, Cooper",
  file = F
}
@INPROCEEDINGS{larson1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Larson, Deborah W.",
  TITLE =        "The U.S.--Soviet Rivalry",
  BOOKTITLE =    "The Evolution of Great Power Rivalries",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  editor =       "William R. Thompson",
  address =      "Columbia",
  publisher =    "University of South Carolina Press",
  file = F
}
@MISC{waymanjones1991,
  author =       "Wayman, Frank and Daniel Jones",
  title =        "War and Power Transitions during Enduring Rivalries",
  howpublished = "International Studies Association, Vancouver",
  year =         "1991",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{lieberman1994,
  AUTHOR =       "Lieberman, Eli ",
  TITLE =        "The Rational Deterrence Theory Debate: Is the Dependent Variable Elusive",
  JOURNAL =      "Security Studies",
  YEAR =         "1994",
  volume =       "3",
  pages =        "384-427",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{gochmanmaoz1984,
  AUTHOR =       "Gochman, Charles and Zeev Maoz",
  TITLE =        "Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1976: Procedures, Patterns, and Insights",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "1984",
  volume =       "28",
  pages =        "585-616",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{diehl1985,
  AUTHOR =       "Diehl, Paul F. ",
  TITLE =        "Contiguity and Military Escalation in Major Power Rivalries, 1816-1980",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Politics",
  YEAR =         "1985",
  volume =       "47",
  pages =        "1203-11",
  file = F
}
@UNPUBLISHED{rajmaira1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Rajmaira, Sheen ",
  TITLE =        "Enter the Dragon: China's Role in the Indo--Pakistani Rivalry",
  NOTE =         "Political Science Department, East Carolina University",
  year =         "1999",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{goldsteinpevehouse1997,
  AUTHOR =       "Goldstein, Joshua S. and John C. Pevehouse",
  TITLE =        "Reciprocity, Bullying, and International Cooperation: Time--Series Analysis of the Bosnia Conflict",
  JOURNAL =      "American Political Science Review",
  YEAR =         "1997",
  volume =       "91",
  pages =        "515-30",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{moore1995,
  AUTHOR =       "Moore, Will H. ",
  TITLE =        "Reciprocity and the Domestic--International Conflict Nexus During the 'Rhodesia Promblem'",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "1995",
  volume =       "39",
  pages =        "129-67",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{goldstein1995,
  AUTHOR =       "Goldstein, Joshua S. ",
  TITLE =        "Great-Power Cooperation Under Conditions of Limited Reciprocity: From Empirical to Formal Analysis",
  JOURNAL =      "International Studies Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "1995",
  volume =       "39",
  pages =        "453-77",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{williamsmcginnis1988,
  AUTHOR =       "Williams, John T.  and Michael D. McGinnis",
  TITLE =        "Sophisticated Reaction in the U.S. Soviet Arms Race: Evidence of Rational Expectations",
  JOURNAL =      "American Journal of Political Science",
  YEAR =         "1988",
  volume =       "32",
  pages =        "968-95",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{freeman1983,
  AUTHOR =       "Freeman, John R. ",
  TITLE =        "Granger Causality and the Time Series Analysis of Political Relationships",
  JOURNAL =      "American Journal of Political Science",
  YEAR =         "1983",
  volume =       "27",
  pages =        "327-58",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{ward1981,
  AUTHOR =       "Ward, Michael Don ",
  TITLE =        "Seasonality, Reaction, Expectation, Adaptation, and Memory in Cooperative and Conflictual Foreign Policy Behavior",
  JOURNAL =      "International Interactions",
  YEAR =         "1981",
  volume =       "8",
  pages =        "229-45",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{majeskijones1981,
  AUTHOR =       "Majeski, Stephen J. and David Jones",
  TITLE =        "Arms Race Modeling: Causality Analysis and Model Specification",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "1981",
  volume =       "25",
  pages =        "259-88",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{george1969,
  AUTHOR =       "George, Alexander L. ",
  TITLE =        "The 'Operational Code':A Neglected Approach to the Study of Political Leaders and Decision-Making",
  JOURNAL =      "International Studies Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "1969",
  volume =       "13",
  pages =        "190-222",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{etzioni1962,
  AUTHOR =       "Etzioni, Amitai",
  TITLE =        "The Hard Way to Peace: A New Strategy",
  PUBLISHER =    "Crowell--Collier",
  YEAR =         "1962",
  address =      "New York",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{osgood1962,
  AUTHOR =       "Osgood, Charles E. ",
  TITLE =        "An Alternative to War or Surrender",
  PUBLISHER =    "University of Illinois Press",
  YEAR =         "1962",
  address =      "Urbana",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{halperin1974,
  AUTHOR =       "Halperin, Morton H. ",
  TITLE =        "Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy",
  PUBLISHER =    "Brookings Institute",
  YEAR =         "1974",
  address =      "Washington",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{holsti1962,
  AUTHOR =       "Holsti, Ole",
  TITLE =        "The Belief System and National Images: A Case Study",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "1962",
  volume =       "6",
  pages =        "244-52",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{jervis1976,
  AUTHOR =       "Jervis, Robert ",
  TITLE =        "Perception and Misperception in International Politics",
  PUBLISHER =    "Princeton University Press",
  YEAR =         "1976",
  address =      "Princeton",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{axelrod1984,
  AUTHOR =       "Axelrod, Robert ",
  TITLE =        "The Evolution of Cooperation",
  PUBLISHER =    "Basic Books",
  YEAR =         "1984",
  address =      "New York",
  file = F
}
@UNPUBLISHED{enterline1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Enterline, Andrew J. ",
  TITLE =        "Some Other Time: The Dynamics of Interstate Conflict, 1816-1992",
  NOTE =         "Department of Political Science, University of North Texas",
  year =         "1999",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{waltz1979,
  AUTHOR =       "Waltz, Kenneth",
  TITLE =        "Theory of International Politics",
  PUBLISHER =    "Random House",
  YEAR =         "1979",
  address =      "New York",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{buenodemesquita1981,
  AUTHOR =       "Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce",
  TITLE =        "The War Trap",
  PUBLISHER =    "Yale University",
  YEAR =         "1981",
  address =      "New Haven",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{moststarr1980,
  AUTHOR =       "Most, Benjamin A. and Harvey Starr",
  TITLE =        "Diffusion, Reinforcement, Geo-politics and the Spread of War",
  JOURNAL =      "American Political Science Review",
  YEAR =         "1980",
  volume =       "74",
  pages =        "932-46",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{davisduncansiverson1978,
  AUTHOR =       "Davis, William and George Duncan and Randolph M. Siverson",
  TITLE =        "The Dyamics of Warfare, 1816-1965",
  JOURNAL =      "American Journal of Political Science",
  YEAR =         "1978",
  volume =       "22",
  pages =        "772-92",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{starr2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Starr, Harvey",
  TITLE =        "Substitutability in Foreign Policy",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  volume =       "44",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "128-138",
  month =        "February",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{moore2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Moore, Will H. ",
  TITLE =        "The Repression of Dissent: A Substitution Model of Government Coercion",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  volume =       "44",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "107-127",
  month =        "February",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{morganpalmer2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Morgan, T. Clifton and Glenn Palmer",
  TITLE =        "A Model of Foreign Policy Substitutability: Selecting the Right Tools for the Job(s)",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  volume =       "44",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "11-32",
  month =        "February",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{regan2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Regan, Patrick M. ",
  TITLE =        "Substituting Policies During U.S. Interventions in Internal Conflicts",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  volume =       "44",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "90-106",
  month =        "February",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{mcginnis2000,
  AUTHOR =       "McGinnis, Michael D. ",
  TITLE =        "Policy Substitutability in Complex Humanitarian Emergencies: A Model of Individual Choice and International Response",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  volume =       "44",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "62-89",
  month =        "February",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{palmerbhandari2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Palmer, Glenn and Archana Bhandari",
  TITLE =        "The Investigation of Substitutability in Foreign Policy",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  volume =       "44",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "3-10",
  month =        "February",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{diehlgoertz2001,
  AUTHOR =       "Diehl, Paul F. and Gary Goertz",
  TITLE =        "War and Peace in International Rivalry",
  PUBLISHER =    "University of Michigan Press",
  YEAR =         "2001",
  address =      "Ann Arbor",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{siversonstarr1991,
  AUTHOR =       "Siverson, Randolph M. and Harvey Starr",
  TITLE =        "The Diffusion of War: A Study of Opportunity and Willingness",
  PUBLISHER =    "University of Michigan",
  YEAR =         "1991",
  address =      "Ann Arbor, Michigan",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{farkas1998,
  AUTHOR =       "Farkas, Andrew ",
  TITLE =        "State Learning and International Relations",
  PUBLISHER =    "University of Michigan",
  YEAR =         "1998",
  address =      "Ann Arbor",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{reiter1996,
  AUTHOR =       "Reiter, Dan ",
  TITLE =        "Crucible of Beliefs: Learning, Alliances, and World Wars",
  PUBLISHER =    "Cornell University Press",
  YEAR =         "1996",
  address =      "Ithaca",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{moststarr1989,
  AUTHOR =       "Most, Benjamin A. and Harvey Starr",
  TITLE =        "Inquiry, Logic, and International Politics",
  PUBLISHER =    "University of South Carolina Press",
  YEAR =         "1989",
  address =      "Columbia",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{leng2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Russell J. Leng",
  TITLE =        "Bargaining and Learning in Recurring Crises",
  PUBLISHER =    "University of Michigan",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  address =      "Ann Arbor",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{goldsteinfreeman1990,
  AUTHOR =       "Goldstein, Joshua S. and John R. Freeman",
  TITLE =        "Three--Way Street: Strategic Reciprocity in World Politics",
  PUBLISHER =    "University of Chicago Press",
  YEAR =         "1990",
  address =      "Chicago",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{walt1987,
  AUTHOR =       "Walt, Stephen M. ",
  TITLE =        "The Origins of Alliances",
  PUBLISHER =    "Cornell University Press",
  YEAR =         "1987",
  address =      "Ithaca",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{diehl1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Diehl, Paul F. ",
  editor =       "Paul F. Diehl",
  TITLE =        "A Road Map to War",
  PUBLISHER =    "Vanderbilt University",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  address =      "Nashville",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{vasquez1993,
  AUTHOR =       "Vasquez, John A. ",
  TITLE =        "The War Puzzle",
  PUBLISHER =    "Cambridge University Press",
  YEAR =         "1993",
  address =      "New York",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{levy1994,
  AUTHOR =       "Levy, Jack S.",
  TITLE =        "Learning and Foreign Policy: Sweeping a Conceptual Minfield",
  JOURNAL =      "International Organization",
  YEAR =         "1994",
  volume =       "48",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "279-312",
  month =        "Spring",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{reiter1994,
  AUTHOR =       "Reiter, Dan",
  TITLE =        "Learning, Realism, and Alliances: The Weight of the Shadow of the Past",
  JOURNAL =      "World Politics",
  YEAR =         "1994",
  volume =       "46",
  pages =        "490-526",
  month =        "July",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{hensel1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Hensel, Paul R. ",
  TITLE =        "An Evolutionary Approach to the Study of Interstate Rivalry",
  JOURNAL =      "Conflict of Management and Peace Science",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  volume =       "17",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "175-206",
  month =        "Fall",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{crescenzienterline2001,
  AUTHOR =       "Crescenzi, Mark J. C. and Andrew J. Enterline",
  TITLE =        "Time Remembered: A Dynamic Model of Interstate Interaction",
  JOURNAL =      "International Studies Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "2001",
  volume =       "45",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "409-431",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{przeworskialvarezcheibublimongi2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Przeworski, Adam, Michael E. Alvarez, Jos\'{e} Antonio Cheibub, and Fernando Limongi",
  TITLE =        "Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950-1990",
  PUBLISHER =    "Cambridge University Press",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  address =      "Cambridge",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{gasiorowski1995,
  AUTHOR =       "Gasiorowski, Mark J.",
  TITLE =        "Economic Crisis and Political Regime Change: An Event History Analysis",
  JOURNAL =      "American Political Science Review",
  YEAR =         "1995",
  volume =       "89",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "882-897",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{swaminathan1999,
  AUTHOR =       "Swaminathan, Siddharth",
  TITLE =        "Time, Power, and Democratic Transitions",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "1999",
  volume =       "43",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "178-191",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{dix1982,
  AUTHOR =       "Dix, Robert H.",
  TITLE =        "The Breakdown of Authoritarian Regimes",
  JOURNAL =      "The Western Political Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "1982",
  volume =       "35",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "554-573",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{zimmermann1988,
  AUTHOR =       "Zimmermann, Ekkart and Thomas Saalfeld",
  TITLE =        "Economic and Political Reactions to the World Economic Crisis of the 1930s in Six European Countries",
  JOURNAL =      "International Studies Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "1988",
  volume =       "32",
  number =       "3",
  pages =        "305-334",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{lijphart1996,
  AUTHOR =       "Lijphart, Arend",
  TITLE =        "The Puzzle of Indian Democracy: A Consociational Interpretation",
  JOURNAL =      "American Political Science Review",
  YEAR =         "1996",
  volume =       "90",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "258-268",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{bernhardreenocknordstrom2004,
  AUTHOR =       "Bernhard, Michael, Christopher Reenock, and Timothy Nordstrom",
  TITLE =        "The Legacy of Western Overseas Colonialism on Democratic Survival",
  JOURNAL =      "International Studies Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "2004",
  volume =       "48",
  number =       "1",
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  file = F
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@ARTICLE{fatton1990,
  AUTHOR =       "Fatton, Robert, Jr.",
  TITLE =        "Liberal Democracy in Africa",
  JOURNAL =      "Political Science Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "1990",
  volume =       "105",
  number =       "3",
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@BOOK{odonnell1973,
  AUTHOR =       "O'Donnell, Guillermo A.",
  TITLE =        "Modernization and Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism: Studies in South American Politics",
  PUBLISHER =    "Institute of International Studies, University of California",
  YEAR =         "1973",
  address =      "Berkeley",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{diamond1993,
  AUTHOR =       "Diamond, Larry, ed.",
  TITLE =        "Political Culture and Democracy in Developing Countries",
  PUBLISHER =    "Reiner",
  YEAR =         "1993",
  address =      "Boulder",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{bollen1979,
  AUTHOR =       "Bollen, Kenneth A.",
  TITLE =        "Political Democracy and the Timing of Development",
  JOURNAL =      "American Sociological Review",
  YEAR =         "1979",
  volume =       "48",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "572-587",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{huntington1984,
  AUTHOR =       "Huntington, Samuel P.",
  TITLE =        "Will More Countries Become Democratic?",
  JOURNAL =      "Political Science Quarterly",
  YEAR =         "1984",
  volume =       "99",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "193-218",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{epstein1984,
  AUTHOR =       "Epstein, Edward",
  TITLE =        "Legitimacy, Institutionalization, and Opposition in Exclusionary Bureaucratic-Authoritarian Regimes",
  JOURNAL =      "Comparative Politics",
  YEAR =         "1984",
  volume =       "17",
  number =       "1",
  pages =        "37-54",
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}
@ARTICLE{markoffbaretta1990,
  AUTHOR =       "Markoff, John and Silvio R. Duncan Baretta",
  TITLE =        "Economic Crisis and Regime Change in Brazil: The 1960s and the 1980s",
  JOURNAL =      "Comparative Politics",
  YEAR =         "1990",
  volume =       "22",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "421-444",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{brattonvandewalle1997,
  AUTHOR =       "Bratton, Michael and Nicolas van de Walle",
  TITLE =        "Democratic Experiments in Africa: Regime Transitions in Comparative Perspective",
  PUBLISHER =    "Cambridge University Press",
  YEAR =         "1997",
  address =      "Cambridge",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{haggardkaufman1995,
  AUTHOR =       "Haggard, Stephan and Robert R. Kaufman",
  TITLE =        "The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions",
  PUBLISHER =    "Princeton University Press",
  YEAR =         "1995",
  address =      "Princeton",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{geddeszaller1989,
  AUTHOR =       "Geddes, Barbara and John Zaller",
  TITLE =        "Sources of Popular Support for Authoritarian Regimes",
  JOURNAL =      "American Journal of Political Science",
  YEAR =         "1989",
  volume =       "33",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "319-347",
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@ARTICLE{bernhardnordstromreenock2001,
  AUTHOR =       "Bernhard, Michael, Timothy Nordstrom, and Christopher Reenock",
  TITLE =        "Economic Performance, Institutional Intermediation, and Democratic Survival",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Politics",
  YEAR =         "2001",
  volume =       "63",
  number =       "3",
  pages =        "775-803",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{jenkinsbond2001,
  AUTHOR =       "Jenkins, J. Craig and Doug Bond",
  TITLE =        "Conflict-Carrying Capacity, Political Crisis, and Reconstruction: A Framework for the Early Warning of Political System Vulnerability",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "2001",
  volume =       "45",
  number =       "1",
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  file = F
}
@INCOLLECTION{almond1980,
   author =      "Almond, Gabriel A.",
   editor =      "Gabriel A. Almond and Sidney Verba",
   booktitle =   "The Civic Culture Revisited",
   title =       "The Intellectual History of the Civi Culture Concept",
   PUBLISHER =   "Little, Brown",
   YEAR =        "1980"},
   address =     "Boston",
}
@ARTICLE{bhavnaniross2003,
  AUTHOR =       "Bhavnani, Ravi and Michael Ross",
  TITLE =        "Announcement, Credibility, and Turnout in Popular Elections",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "2003",
  volume =       "47",
  number =       "3",
  pages =        "340-366",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{gotze2004,
  AUTHOR =       "G{\"o}tze, Catherine",
  TITLE =        "Civil Society Organizations in Failing States: The Red Cross in Bosnia and Albania",
  JOURNAL =      "International Peacekeeping",
  YEAR =         "2004",
  volume =       "11",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "664-682",
  file = F
}
@INCOLLECTION{remmer1990,
   author =      "Remmer, Karen L.",
   editor =      "David Fleix"},
   booktitle =   "Debt and Transfiguration? Prospects for Latin America's Economic Revival",
   title =       "Debt or Democracy? The Political Impact of the Debt Crisis in Latin America",
   PUBLISHER =   "Sharp",
   YEAR =        "1990",
   address =     "Armonk, NY",
}
@BOOK{carothers1991,
  AUTHOR =       "Carothers, Thomas",
  TITLE =        "In the Name of Democracy: U.S. Policy Toward Latin America in the Reagan Years",
  PUBLISHER =    "University of California Press",
  YEAR =         "1991",
  address =      "Berkeley,CA",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{odonnellschmitter1986,
  AUTHOR =       "O'Donnell, Guillermo and Philippe C. Schmitter",
  TITLE =        "Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies",
  PUBLISHER =    "Johns Hopkins University Press",
  YEAR =         "1986",
  address =      "Baltimore",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{ellingsen2000,
  AUTHOR =       "Ellingsen, Tanja",
  TITLE =        "Colorful Community or Ethnic Witches' Brew: Multiethnicity and Domestic Conflict During and After the Cold War",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "2000",
  volume =       "44",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "228-249",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{gurrharff1994,
  AUTHOR =       "Gurr, Ted and Barbara Harff",
  TITLE =        "Ethnic Conflict in World Politics",
  PUBLISHER =    "Westview",
  YEAR =         "1994",
  address =      "Boulder, CO",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{lakerothchild1996,
  AUTHOR =       "Lake, David A. and Donald Rothchild",
  TITLE =        "Containing Fear: The Origins and Management of Ethnic Conflict",
  JOURNAL =      "International Security",
  YEAR =         "1996",
  volume =       "21",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "41-75",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{mousseau2001,
  AUTHOR =       "Mousseau, Demet Yalcin",
  TITLE =        "Democratizing with Ethnic Divisions: A Source of Conflict?",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Peace Research",
  YEAR =         "2001",
  volume =       "38",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "547-567",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{fearonlaitin1996,
  AUTHOR =       "Fearon, James D. and David D. Laitin",
  TITLE =        "Explaining Interethnic Cooperation",
  JOURNAL =      "American Political Science Review",
  YEAR =         "1996",
  volume =       "90",
  number =       "4",
  pages =        "715-735",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{sambanis2001,
  AUTHOR =       "Sambanis, Nicholas",
  TITLE =        "Do Ethnic and Nonethnic Civil Wars Have the Same Causes?: A Theoretical and Empirical Inquiry (Part I)",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "2001",
  volume =       "45",
  number =       "3",
  pages =        "259-282",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{mars2001,
  AUTHOR =       "Mars, Perry",
  TITLE =        "Ethnic Politics, Mediation, and Conflict Resolution: The Guyana Experience",
  JOURNAL =      "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
  YEAR =         "2001",
  volume =       "38",
  number =       "3",
  pages =        "353-372",
  file = F
}
@BOOK{ishiyamabreuning1998,
  AUTHOR =       "Ishiyama, John T. and Marijke Bruening",
  TITLE =        "Ethnopolitics in the New Europe",
  PUBLISHER =    "Lynne Rienner",
  YEAR =         "1998",
  address =      "Boulder, CO",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{cornell2002,
  AUTHOR =       "Cornell, Svante E.",
  TITLE =        "Autonomy as a Source of Conflict: Caucasian Conflicts in Theoretical Perspective",
  JOURNAL =      "World Politics",
  YEAR =         "2002",
  volume =       "54",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "245-276",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{ogude2002,
  AUTHOR =       "Ogude, James",
  TITLE =        "Ethnicity, Nationalism and the Making of Democracy in Kenya: An Introduction",
  JOURNAL =      "African Studies",
  YEAR =         "2002",
  volume =       "61",
  number =       "2",
  pages =        "205-207",
  file = F
}
@ARTICLE{lijphart1969,
  AUTHOR =       "Lijphart, Arend",
  TITLE =        "Consociational Democracy",
  JOURNAL =      "World Politics",
  YEAR =         "21",
  volume =       "2",
  pages =        "207-25",
  file = F
}
